Buffalo @ Ball State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Wed, Nov 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 11 · at Ball State · Conference game

Buffalo

4-3 · Power #125

projected

Wed 12:00 AM ET

Ball State

2-5 · Power #132

projected

BUFF 51%

49% BALL

Spread

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Total

—

model 53.5

Model line

BUFF -0.5

BUFF 51% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUFF LLWWW	3-4	43%	1-2	—
BALL LLWWW	4-3	57%	2-0	—

Venue/role: BUFF away; BALL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUFF OOUUU	3-4	43%	4-3
BALL OUOOO	6-1	86%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUFF	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
BALL	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Buffalo

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	vs CMU	L19–38LO
Nov 27	@ AKR	L16–24LU

Ball State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	@ OHIO	W20–14WU
Nov 28	vs CMU	L34–37WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BUFF 1–0 BALL BUFF leads · 1 game since 2023 · BUFF has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 12 2024	Ball State 48 @ Buffalo 51	BUFF -3.5	BALL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUFF−12.9 →−15.5▼ 2.6#125

BALL−17.4 →−18.3▼ 0.9#132

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

BUFF

Longer bar = better

BALL

#124

Offense

Even

#111

#72

Defense

◀ BUFF better

#128

−0.6 #112

Turnovers

BALL better ▶

−0.3 #94

75 plays #7

Pace

◀ BUFF faster

63 plays #101

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUFF has the ball

Even matchup

	BUFF off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #111	37.9 #135	BUFF
Yards / play	4.35 #136	6.66 #131	Even
PPA / play	+0.02 #116	+0.29 #134	Even
Success rate	35% #132	44% #110	BALL

When BALL has the ball

Advantage: BUFF defense

	BALL off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	20.3 #118	25.6 #87	BUFF
Yards / play	5.14 #117	5.79 #95	BUFF
PPA / play	+0.10 #89	+0.08 #68	BUFF
Success rate	39% #119	38% #39	BUFF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

BUFF scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	3.1 #118	7.6 #93	10.7 #110	3.6 #123	6.1 #91	9.7 #115
BALL allowed	7.7 #124	10.4 #120	18.1 #127	7.0 #105	11.7 #137	18.7 #133

BALL scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	3.4 #114	5.9 #113	9.3 #122	4.1 #113	5.7 #101	9.9 #110
BUFF allowed	8.4 #129	6.4 #59	14.9 #103	4.3 #54	6.4 #77	10.7 #65

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.