Buffalo @ Akron: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Fri, Nov 27, 2026, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Akron · Conference game

Buffalo

4-3 · Power #125

projected

Fri 12:00 PM ET

Akron

1-6 · Power #133

projected

BUFF 52%

48% AKR

Spread

—

Total

—

model 51.5

Model line

BUFF -1

BUFF 52% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUFF LLWWW	3-4	43%	1-2	—
AKR LLLWL	3-4	43%	2-1	—

Venue/role: BUFF away; AKR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUFF OOUUU	3-4	43%	4-3
AKR UUOUO	4-3	57%	1-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUFF	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
AKR	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Buffalo

No more games this season.

Akron

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

BUFF 2–1 AKR BUFF leads · 3 games since 2023 · AKR has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 25 2025	Akron 24 @ Buffalo 16	BUFF -10.5	AKR W
Nov 2 2024	Buffalo 41 @ Akron 30	BUFF -2.5	BUFF W
Sep 30 2023	Buffalo 13 @ Akron 10	AKR -3	BUFF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUFF−12.9 →−15.5▼ 2.6#125

AKR−15.6 →−19.0▼ 3.4#133

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

BUFF

Longer bar = better

AKR

#124

Offense

Even

#114

#72

Defense

◀ BUFF better

#121

−0.6 #112

Turnovers

◀ BUFF better

−1.0 #131

75 plays #7

Pace

◀ BUFF faster

65 plays #82

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUFF has the ball

Even matchup

	BUFF off	AKR def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #111	32.4 #124	Even
Yards / play	4.35 #136	6.71 #132	Even
PPA / play	+0.02 #116	+0.23 #122	Even
Success rate	35% #132	44% #107	AKR

When AKR has the ball

Advantage: BUFF defense

	AKR off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	18.9 #126	25.6 #87	BUFF
Yards / play	5.22 #114	5.79 #95	Even
PPA / play	+0.04 #109	+0.08 #68	BUFF
Success rate	40% #107	38% #39	BUFF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

BUFF scoring against the AKR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	3.1 #118	7.6 #93	10.7 #110	3.6 #123	6.1 #91	9.7 #115
AKR allowed	5.3 #83	12.3 #132	17.6 #121	7.7 #117	7.1 #95	14.9 #118

AKR scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AKR scored	4.0 #98	4.9 #124	8.9 #124	3.3 #126	6.7 #73	10.0 #109
BUFF allowed	8.4 #129	6.4 #59	14.9 #103	4.3 #54	6.4 #77	10.7 #65

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.