Central Michigan @ Buffalo: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Wed, Nov 18, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 12 · at Buffalo · Conference game

Central Michigan

3-4 · Power #120

projected

Wed 12:00 AM ET

Buffalo

4-3 · Power #125

projected

CMU 50%

50% BUFF

Spread

—

Total

—

model 47.5

Model line

Pick’em

BUFF 50% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CMU WLWLW	3-4	43%	0-3	—
BUFF LLWWW	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: CMU away; BUFF home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CMU UOOUU	2-5	29%	3-4
BUFF OOUUU	3-4	43%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CMU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%
BUFF	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Central Michigan

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ BALL	W37–34LO

Buffalo

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	@ AKR	L16–24LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

CMU 1–1 BUFF Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · CMU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 12 2025	Buffalo 19 @ Central Michigan 38	CMU -2.5	CMU W
Oct 7 2023	Central Michigan 13 @ Buffalo 37	CMU -1	BUFF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CMU−10.4 →−13.6▼ 3.2#120

BUFF−12.9 →−15.6▼ 2.7#125

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

CMU

Longer bar = better

BUFF

#117

Offense

Even

#124

#106

Defense

BUFF better ▶

#72

+0.1 #64

Turnovers

◀ CMU better

−0.6 #112

60 plays #126

Pace

BUFF faster ▶

75 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CMU has the ball

Advantage: BUFF defense

	CMU off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	16.6 #132	25.6 #87	BUFF
Yards / play	4.90 #125	5.79 #95	BUFF
PPA / play	+0.05 #106	+0.08 #68	BUFF
Success rate	40% #106	38% #39	BUFF

When BUFF has the ball

Even matchup

	BUFF off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #111	25.6 #85	CMU
Yards / play	4.35 #136	5.62 #86	CMU
PPA / play	+0.02 #116	+0.22 #121	Even
Success rate	35% #132	48% #131	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

CMU scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	0.9 #138	5.0 #122	5.9 #138	4.9 #102	5.9 #96	10.7 #99
BUFF allowed	8.4 #129	6.4 #59	14.9 #103	4.3 #54	6.4 #77	10.7 #64

BUFF scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	3.1 #118	7.6 #93	10.7 #110	3.6 #123	6.1 #92	9.7 #115
CMU allowed	5.0 #75	11.7 #126	16.7 #117	5.0 #72	3.9 #17	8.9 #34

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.