Iowa State @ UCF: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Fri, Nov 20, 2026, 6:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at UCF · Conference game

Iowa State

3-3 · Power #49

projected

Fri 6:00 PM ET

UCF

3-3 · Power #55

projected

ISU 45%

55% UCF

Spread

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Total

—

model 47

Model line

UCF -2

UCF 55% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ISU WWLPL	2-3-1	40%	1-1	—
UCF WLWWL	4-2	67%	2-1	—

Venue/role: ISU away; UCF home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ISU UOOOU	3-3	50%	3-3
UCF UOUUO	3-3	50%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ISU	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	3-7 30%
UCF	4-6 40%	4-5 44%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Iowa State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs KSU	W24–21WU

UCF

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ COLO	L21–48LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ISU 1–0 UCF ISU leads · 1 game since 2023 · ISU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 19 2024	UCF 35 @ Iowa State 38	ISU -13.5	UCF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ISU+6.2 →+4.7▼ 1.5#50

UCF+0.7 →+3.5▲ 2.8#56

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

ISU

Longer bar = better

UCF

#83

Offense

Even

#80

#77

Defense

UCF better ▶

#48

+0.5 #36

Turnovers

Even

+0.7 #25

62 plays #117

Pace

Even

61 plays #122

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ISU has the ball

Advantage: UCF defense

	ISU off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	29.7 #68	21.7 #50	Even
Yards / play	5.83 #71	5.07 #48	UCF
PPA / play	+0.13 #80	0.00 #33	UCF
Success rate	39% #112	41% #60	UCF

When UCF has the ball

Even matchup

	UCF off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	31.7 #52	21.7 #51	Even
Yards / play	5.83 #70	5.84 #100	UCF
PPA / play	+0.07 #99	+0.11 #83	Even
Success rate	40% #100	42% #74	ISU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

ISU scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	7.0 #50	9.7 #56	16.7 #55	5.0 #95	8.0 #50	13.0 #75
UCF allowed	4.0 #46	7.2 #71	11.2 #55	3.8 #41	6.7 #84	10.5 #61

UCF scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	11.0 #12	6.2 #108	17.2 #49	8.2 #24	6.3 #87	14.5 #49
ISU allowed	5.8 #95	6.8 #64	12.7 #78	3.5 #38	5.5 #50	9.0 #36

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.