Tue, Nov 17, 2026, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Western Michigan · Conference game
4-4 · Power #128
17
projected
@
5-2 · Power #88
31
projected
EMU 14%
86% WMU
Spread
—
 
Total
—
model 47.5
Model line
WMU -15
WMU 86% to win
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Winner

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 

Model view

Power-rating model, before kickoff
Model Favorite
Western Michigan 86%
Projected EMU 17 – WMU 31 · Model Favorite won 73.7% in backtest
Model line
WMU -15
Market —
Against the spread
No lean
No market line yet
Total
—
Model 47.5
How the model gets there (points from WMU’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)
SpreadWMU rating edge+12.6+Home field+2.5=Model marginWMU by 15.1
TotalScoring ratings47.6=Model total47.6

Signals

The data signal, and no trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

No notable trends or market moves for this game.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
EMU−12.8 →−16.4▼ 3.6#128
WMU−4.7 →−4.7–#86
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

EMU
Longer bar = better
WMU
#115
Offense
WMU better ▶
#83
#97
Defense
WMU better ▶
#53
−0.1 #82
Turnovers
WMU better ▶
+0.6 #26
67 plays #61
Pace
◀ EMU faster
60 plays #125
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When EMU has the ball
Advantage: WMU defense
EMU offWMU defEdge
Points / game 21.5 #109 16.9 #24 WMU
Yards / play 4.78 #134 5.01 #40 WMU
PPA / play +0.04 #107 +0.07 #56 WMU
Success rate 40% #108 42% #90 Even
When WMU has the ball
Even matchup
WMU offEMU defEdge
Points / game 25.0 #91 25.9 #93 Even
Yards / play 5.40 #107 5.99 #108 Even
PPA / play +0.16 #64 +0.14 #94 WMU
Success rate 43% #71 43% #93 WMU

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
EMU scoring against the WMU defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
EMU scored
3.8
#111
8.1
#87
11.9
#100
5.1
#94
4.5
#121
9.6
#118
WMU allowed
3.1
#32
4.0
#19
7.1
#13
3.4
#37
6.3
#69
9.7
#47
WMU scoring against the EMU defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
WMU scored
5.4
#87
6.9
#101
12.3
#99
4.4
#108
8.3
#48
12.7
#82
EMU allowed
3.4
#38
11.3
#124
14.6
#102
5.0
#72
6.3
#68
11.3
#69

Game conditions

Before kickoff
Home field
WMU +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
Not yet
Forecast 15 days before kickoff
Rest
EMU14d bye
WMU7d
EMU +7 days
Tempo
Slow 127 plays
slowavg 133fast

News & sentiment

ESPN and Google News headlines
Recent ESPN and Google News headlines for both teams, injury and suspension mentions, and a keyword-based read on the tone of coverage.