Oregon @ Michigan State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Fri, Nov 20, 2026, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Michigan State · Conference game

Oregon

4-2 · Power #9

projected

Fri 8:00 PM ET

Michigan State

2-5 · Power #69

projected

ORE 85%

15% MSU

Spread

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Total

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model 48.5

Model line

ORE -14.5

ORE 85% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORE LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-1	—
MSU WLLWW	4-2-1	67%	3-1-1	—

Venue/role: ORE away; MSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORE OOOUU	4-2	67%	4-2
MSU UUUOU	2-5	29%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORE	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
MSU	3-7 30%	6-3-1 67%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Oregon

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs WASH	W26–14WU

Michigan State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ RUTG	L14–41LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ORE 1–0 MSU ORE leads · 1 game since 2023 · ORE has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 4 2024	Michigan State 10 @ Oregon 31	ORE -21.5	MSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ORE+25.4 →+17.5▼ 7.9#11

MSU+0.6 →+0.5▼ 0.1#69

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

ORE

Longer bar = better

MSU

#70

Offense

◀ ORE better

#106

#32

Defense

◀ ORE better

#93

0.0 #75

Turnovers

◀ ORE better

−0.7 #123

70 plays #30

Pace

◀ ORE faster

64 plays #92

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ORE has the ball

Advantage: ORE offense

	ORE off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #23	25.4 #82	ORE
Yards / play	6.01 #57	5.56 #79	ORE
PPA / play	+0.08 #96	+0.20 #114	Even
Success rate	40% #102	43% #95	Even

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: ORE defense

	MSU off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #113	20.7 #41	ORE
Yards / play	4.84 #130	4.95 #33	ORE
PPA / play	+0.01 #119	−0.01 #29	ORE
Success rate	44% #62	37% #26	ORE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

ORE scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	7.3 #45	9.2 #67	16.5 #57	8.5 #20	12.0 #3	20.5 #6
MSU allowed	6.3 #102	8.3 #85	14.6 #99	3.3 #34	6.6 #82	9.9 #49

MSU scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	3.9 #104	7.1 #99	11.0 #105	3.9 #116	5.6 #107	9.4 #120
ORE allowed	2.2 #10	9.2 #105	11.3 #60	5.0 #72	4.3 #24	9.3 #41

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.