Iowa @ Illinois: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 12 · at Illinois · Conference game

Iowa

5-1 · Power #27

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Illinois

3-3 · Power #53

projected

IOWA 64%

36% ILL

Spread

—

Total

—

model 51.5

Model line

IOWA -5

IOWA 64% to win

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IOWA LWWLW	4-2	67%	2-0	—
ILL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: IOWA away; ILL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IOWA UOUUO	2-4	33%	5-1
ILL OOOUO	5-1	83%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IOWA	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
ILL	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Iowa

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	vs NEB	W40–16WO

Illinois

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ NU	W20–13PU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

IOWA 38–39 ILL (2 tied) ILL leads · 79 games since 1899 · IOWA has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	Illinois 13 @ Iowa 15	IOWA -3	ILL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IOWA+11.4 →+11.4–#27

ILL+7.7 →+4.0▼ 3.7#53

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

IOWA

Longer bar = better

ILL

#42

Offense

Even

#32

#24

Defense

◀ IOWA better

#115

+0.3 #49

Turnovers

◀ IOWA better

−0.2 #88

62 plays #116

Pace

Even

62 plays #113

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IOWA has the ball

Advantage: IOWA offense

	IOWA off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #60	27.8 #106	IOWA
Yards / play	6.54 #29	5.82 #97	IOWA
PPA / play	+0.22 #39	+0.30 #136	IOWA
Success rate	47% #41	46% #122	IOWA

When ILL has the ball

Even matchup

	ILL off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	31.8 #51	14.5 #9	IOWA
Yards / play	6.52 #31	4.58 #16	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #29	+0.05 #48	Even
Success rate	49% #16	36% #24	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

IOWA scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	11.2 #10	9.7 #56	20.8 #21	3.5 #124	6.7 #79	10.2 #107
ILL allowed	5.7 #89	9.7 #110	15.3 #107	3.8 #41	7.7 #98	11.5 #73

ILL scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	9.2 #22	9.7 #56	18.8 #37	2.7 #129	9.2 #25	11.8 #90
IOWA allowed	2.8 #18	3.8 #15	6.7 #10	4.7 #67	3.2 #9	7.8 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.