Illinois @ Northwestern: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Sat, Nov 28, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 13 · at Northwestern · Conference game

Illinois

3-3 · Power #53

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Northwestern

5-1 · Power #30

projected

ILL 53%

47% NU

Spread

ILL -3.5

Total

52.5

model 57

Spread edge

NU by 12

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:25 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentILL -3.5

Total52.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:25 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowILL -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now52.5

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 61%, covered 50% (265 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:25 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentILL -3.5

Total52.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:25 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ILL as a 3.5-point road favorite at NU, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 1 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 50%

Overs below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 3.2 against an average line of 3.4; 47.4 points a game (usually 52.3). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UNC @ DUKE 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	20–21	L	U55.5
Close	KU @ UCF 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	27–20	W	U53.5
Close	UVA @ CCU 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	43–24	W	O52
Close	CLEM @ GT 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	21–24	L	U51
Close	DUKE @ SYR 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	38–3	W	U59.5
Close	TXST @ CCU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.75	23–31	L	U55.5
Close	USC @ PSU 2026 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-1.5	31–23	W	U54.5
Close	TULN @ MEM 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-4.5	31–21	W	U55
Close	TTU @ WVU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-6	13–20	L	U54.5
Close	MRSH @ CCU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	6–34	L	U47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ILL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-1	1-4
NU WWWLL	4-2	67%	3-1	2-0

Venue/role: ILL away, as favorite; NU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ILL OOOUO	5-1	83%	3-3
NU OOOOU	5-1	83%	5-1

In 1565 games with totals 48.5–56.5, 51% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ILL	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%
NU	7-3 70%	6-3-1 67%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Illinois

No more games this season.

Northwestern

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

ILL 2–1 NU ILL leads · 3 games since 2023 · ILL has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 29 2025	Northwestern 13 @ Illinois 20	ILL -7	P
Nov 30 2024	Illinois 38 @ Northwestern 28	ILL -8.5	ILL W
Nov 25 2023	Northwestern 45 @ Illinois 43	ILL -6	NU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ILL+7.7 →+3.9▼ 3.8#53

NU+2.4 →+10.0▲ 7.6#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

ILL

Longer bar = better

#32

Offense

Even

#21

#115

Defense

NU better ▶

#64

−0.2 #88

Turnovers

NU better ▶

+1.2 #7

62 plays #113

Pace

Even

63 plays #102

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ILL has the ball

Advantage: ILL offense

	ILL off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	31.8 #51	17.0 #25	NU
Yards / play	6.52 #31	5.29 #61	ILL
PPA / play	+0.24 #29	+0.08 #67	ILL
Success rate	49% #16	44% #101	ILL

When NU has the ball

Advantage: NU offense

	NU off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	33.5 #41	27.8 #106	NU
Yards / play	6.70 #19	5.82 #97	NU
PPA / play	+0.33 #9	+0.30 #136	NU
Success rate	50% #13	46% #122	NU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

ILL scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	9.2 #23	9.7 #56	18.8 #37	2.7 #129	9.2 #25	11.8 #90
NU allowed	1.5 #5	7.3 #72	8.8 #32	2.7 #24	5.5 #50	8.2 #27

NU scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	6.8 #59	9.2 #67	16.0 #61	8.7 #18	8.8 #34	17.5 #21
ILL allowed	5.7 #89	9.7 #110	15.3 #107	3.8 #41	7.7 #98	11.5 #73

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.