Michigan @ Ohio State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Sat, Nov 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Ohio State · Conference game

Michigan

4-2 · Power #34

projected

Sat 12:00 PM ET

Ohio State

6-1 · Power #2

projected

MICH 14%

86% OSU

Spread

OSU -13.5

Total

46.5

model 49

Spread edge

OSU by 7.5

lean · context

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:25 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentOSU -13.5

Total46.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:25 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowOSU -13.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now46.5

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 87%, covered 55% (159 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:25 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentOSU -13.5

Total46.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:25 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OSU as a 13.5-point home favorite against MICH, the favorite won 10, covered 8, and 5 went over the total.

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Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 22.2 against an average line of 13.9; 50.2 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FSU vs MIA 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-14.5	27–20	L	U50.5
Very close	PSU vs WASH 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-13.5	35–6	W	U48
Very close	UGA vs UK 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & spread	-14.5	51–13	W	O47
Very close	ALA vs AUB 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & rest	-11	28–14	W	U51
Close	ALA vs MIZ 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-16	34–0	W	U51.5
Close	TEX vs CLEM 2024 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-13.5	38–24	W	O49.5
Close	UTAH vs COLO 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-14	53–7	W	O50
Close	USC vs WIS 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-13.5	38–21	W	O50
Close	FSU vs DUKE 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-14	38–20	W	O49
Close	IU vs MICH 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & total	-14.5	20–15	L	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MICH WWLLL	2-4	33%	0-1	1-0
OSU WLWLW	5-2	71%	2-2	4-2

Venue/role: MICH away, as underdog; OSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MICH UOUUU	1-5	17%	4-2
OSU OOUOU	4-3	57%	6-1

In 1155 games with totals 42.5–50.5, 54% went over; 4% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 33% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MICH	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
OSU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Michigan

No more games this season.

Ohio State

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

MICH 2–1 OSU MICH leads · 3 games since 2023 · OSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 29 2025	Ohio State 27 @ Michigan 9	OSU -10	OSU W
Nov 30 2024	Michigan 13 @ Ohio State 10	OSU -20.5	MICH W
Nov 25 2023	Ohio State 24 @ Michigan 30	MICH -3	MICH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MICH+14.6 →+8.8▼ 5.8#34

OSU+27.1 →+25.8▼ 1.3#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

MICH

Longer bar = better

OSU

#97

Offense

OSU better ▶

#14

#10

Defense

Even

#10

−0.5 #103

Turnovers

OSU better ▶

+0.3 #56

58 plays #136

Pace

OSU faster ▶

69 plays #47

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MICH has the ball

Advantage: OSU defense

	MICH off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	22.7 #106	13.4 #6	OSU
Yards / play	5.43 #106	4.21 #3	OSU
PPA / play	+0.09 #95	−0.05 #13	OSU
Success rate	42% #82	35% #18	OSU

When OSU has the ball

Even matchup

	OSU off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	39.3 #12	16.2 #19	Even
Yards / play	6.95 #11	4.11 #1	Even
PPA / play	+0.27 #21	−0.10 #6	Even
Success rate	50% #10	35% #14	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MICH scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	3.5 #112	6.2 #108	9.7 #120	7.5 #36	5.5 #110	13.0 #76
OSU allowed	2.3 #11	3.3 #12	5.6 #4	1.3 #5	6.6 #82	7.9 #23

OSU scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	12.3 #5	11.9 #26	24.1 #8	5.9 #77	9.3 #24	15.1 #39
MICH allowed	4.5 #62	1.7 #1	6.2 #9	1.7 #7	8.3 #117	10.0 #51

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.