Michigan State @ Rutgers: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Sat, Nov 28, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 13 · at Rutgers · Conference game

Michigan State

2-5 · Power #69

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Rutgers

2-4 · Power #77

projected

MSU 53%

47% RUTG

Spread

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Total

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model 55

Model line

MSU -1

MSU 53% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSU WLLWW	4-2-1	67%	1-1	—
RUTG LWWLW	3-3	50%	2-2	—

Venue/role: MSU away; RUTG home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSU UUUOU	2-5	29%	2-5
RUTG UOOOO	5-1	83%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSU	3-7 30%	6-3-1 67%	3-7 30%
RUTG	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Michigan State

No more games this season.

Rutgers

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MSU 0–2 RUTG RUTG leads · 2 games since 2023 · RUTG has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	Rutgers 41 @ Michigan State 14	MSU -1.5	RUTG W
Oct 14 2023	Michigan State 24 @ Rutgers 27	RUTG -3.5	MSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSU+0.6 →+0.5▼ 0.1#69

RUTG+2.3 →−3.0▼ 5.3#79

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

MSU

Longer bar = better

RUTG

#106

Offense

RUTG better ▶

#55

#92

Defense

◀ MSU better

#127

−0.7 #123

Turnovers

Even

−0.8 #127

64 plays #92

Pace

RUTG faster ▶

67 plays #64

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: MSU offense

	MSU off	RUTG def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #113	31.8 #119	Even
Yards / play	4.84 #130	6.58 #130	Even
PPA / play	+0.01 #119	+0.26 #128	Even
Success rate	44% #62	48% #130	MSU

When RUTG has the ball

Advantage: RUTG offense

	RUTG off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	31.2 #59	25.4 #82	RUTG
Yards / play	6.03 #56	5.56 #78	RUTG
PPA / play	+0.16 #63	+0.20 #114	RUTG
Success rate	47% #40	43% #95	RUTG

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MSU scoring against the RUTG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	3.9 #104	7.1 #100	11.0 #105	3.9 #116	5.6 #107	9.4 #120
RUTG allowed	9.2 #133	10.3 #119	19.5 #133	5.3 #78	7.0 #89	12.3 #83

RUTG scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RUTG scored	7.0 #50	6.7 #103	13.7 #87	9.2 #13	8.3 #45	17.5 #21
MSU allowed	6.3 #102	8.3 #84	14.6 #99	3.3 #34	6.6 #82	9.9 #49

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.