Penn State @ Maryland: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Sat, Nov 28, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 13 · at Maryland · Conference game

Penn State

3-4 · Power #32

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Maryland

2-5 · Power #72

projected

PSU 73%

27% MD

Spread

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Total

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model 50.5

Model line

PSU -8.5

PSU 73% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PSU WLLLW	3-4	43%	1-2	—
MD LLLWL	3-4	43%	1-3	—

Venue/role: PSU away; MD home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PSU OOOUU	3-4	43%	3-4
MD OOOOO	6-1	86%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PSU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
MD	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Penn State

No more games this season.

Maryland

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

PSU 2–0 MD PSU leads · 2 games since 2023 · PSU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	Maryland 7 @ Penn State 44	PSU -26.5	PSU W
Nov 4 2023	Penn State 51 @ Maryland 15	PSU -7.5	PSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PSU+12.7 →+9.2▼ 3.5#32

MD+0.7 →−0.7▼ 1.4#72

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

PSU

Longer bar = better

#82

Offense

◀ PSU better

#96

#56

Defense

◀ PSU better

#108

+0.6 #30

Turnovers

◀ PSU better

+0.4 #45

66 plays #70

Pace

MD faster ▶

68 plays #54

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PSU has the ball

Advantage: PSU offense

	PSU off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	28.7 #73	33.3 #129	PSU
Yards / play	5.78 #77	5.60 #82	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #81	+0.15 #104	PSU
Success rate	40% #98	45% #117	Even

When MD has the ball

Advantage: PSU defense

	MD off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.3 #74	18.9 #31	PSU
Yards / play	5.55 #93	5.19 #56	PSU
PPA / play	+0.04 #108	+0.10 #79	PSU
Success rate	39% #110	40% #56	PSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

PSU scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	6.7 #60	9.3 #63	16.0 #59	6.3 #66	6.4 #82	12.7 #82
MD allowed	6.0 #100	12.0 #129	18.0 #126	7.6 #112	7.7 #99	15.3 #122

MD scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	7.1 #48	10.6 #40	17.7 #42	5.9 #76	4.7 #117	10.6 #101
PSU allowed	2.9 #22	5.3 #31	8.1 #22	4.4 #59	6.3 #69	10.7 #64

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.