Virginia @ Virginia Tech: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Sat, Nov 28, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 13 · at Virginia Tech · Conference game

Virginia

4-4 · Power #50

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Virginia Tech

5-2 · Power #45

projected

UVA 44%

56% VT

Spread

VT -1.5

Total

53.5

model 51

Spread edge

VT by 3

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:25 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentVT -1.5

Total53.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:25 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowVT -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now53.5

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 52%, covered 50% (230 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:25 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentVT -1.5

Total53.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:25 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like VT as a 1.5-point home favorite against UVA, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.8 against an average line of 2.5; 57.4 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MEM vs TULN 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-3	32–38	L	O53.5
Very close	SC vs UK 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	34–35	L	O52.5
Very close	DUKE vs WAKE 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.5	49–32	W	O53.5
Very close	LOU vs CLEM 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	19–20	L	U50.5
Very close	SC vs UK 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	17–14	W	U52.5
Very close	KSU vs KU 2026 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	35–24	W	O55.5
Very close	UK vs MIZ 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	21–38	L	O50.5
Very close	MIZ vs ARK 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	28–21	W	U51
Very close	ISU vs KSU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2	29–21	W	U51.5
Very close	FRES vs BOIS 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	37–30	W	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UVA WLLPL	3-4-1	43%	0-1-1	0-0-1
VT WLLLW	4-3	57%	3-1	4-3

Venue/role: UVA away, as underdog; VT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UVA UUOUU	3-5	38%	4-4
VT OUOUO	5-2	71%	5-2

In 1493 games with totals 49.5–57.5, 51% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UVA	5-5 50%	4-5-1 44%	3-7 30%
VT	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Virginia

No more games this season.

Virginia Tech

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

UVA 1–2 VT VT leads · 3 games since 2023 · UVA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 29 2025	Virginia Tech 7 @ Virginia 27	UVA -8.5	UVA W
Nov 30 2024	Virginia 17 @ Virginia Tech 37	VT -4.5	VT W
Nov 25 2023	Virginia Tech 55 @ Virginia 17	VT -1.5	VT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UVA+7.4 →+4.4▼ 3.0#52

VT+1.5 →+5.6▲ 4.1#45

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

UVA

Longer bar = better

#65

Offense

VT better ▶

#38

#55

Defense

Even

#55

+0.5 #34

Turnovers

◀ UVA better

−0.6 #113

68 plays #55

Pace

VT faster ▶

73 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UVA has the ball

Even matchup

	UVA off	VT def	Edge
Points / game	28.3 #76	21.1 #46	VT
Yards / play	5.33 #112	5.21 #57	VT
PPA / play	+0.23 #34	+0.10 #73	UVA
Success rate	47% #39	39% #45	Even

When VT has the ball

Even matchup

	VT off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	37.1 #22	19.6 #37	Even
Yards / play	6.22 #50	5.15 #53	Even
PPA / play	+0.23 #36	+0.09 #72	VT
Success rate	46% #44	40% #57	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

UVA scoring against the VT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	9.1 #27	6.4 #105	15.5 #65	5.6 #84	7.1 #64	12.8 #81
VT allowed	1.4 #3	6.3 #53	7.7 #18	5.4 #79	8.0 #109	13.4 #101

VT scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VT scored	10.4 #15	14.0 #8	24.4 #7	6.0 #70	6.7 #74	12.7 #82
UVA allowed	3.0 #29	7.1 #70	10.1 #48	4.4 #58	5.1 #43	9.5 #44

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.