Kentucky @ South Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 4:15 PM EDTWeek 5 · at South Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F9 mphWet0.1 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Kentucky

3-1 · Power #26

▲ winner

Final

South Carolina

2-2 · Power #28

final

Closing spread

SC -2.5

✓ UK W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

UK 24–27 SC

✗ SC (58%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSC -7

CloseSC -2.5

Total49.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSC -7

4.5 → UK

CloseSC -2.5

4.5 pts toward Kentucky

Total

Open49.5

▲ 3

Close52.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SC -7 · closed SC -2.5 · moved 4.5 toward UKmodel SC -4.5

model SC -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 53% (351 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 48% (139 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSC -7

CloseSC -2.5

Total49.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SC as a 2.5-point home favorite against UK, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UK won 35–34 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 52.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.9 against an average line of 3.5; 52.1 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MICH vs WASH 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4	24–7	W	U50.5
Close	FLA vs ARK 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-3.5	36–39	L	O49.5
Close	ARIZ vs COLO 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	7–34	L	U57.5
Close	TCU vs CIN 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	45–23	W	O58.5
Close	BYU vs TCU 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	44–13	W	O51.5
Close	UTAH vs TCU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	7–13	L	U51.5
Close	BC vs PITT 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	34–23	W	O50.5
Close	UGA vs MISS 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	43–35	W	O56.5
Close	LSU vs ARK 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar situation	-4	23–22	L	U58.5
Close	RUTG vs WIS 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-1.25	7–42	L	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UK WLWW	3-1	75%	1-0	1-1
SC WLLL	1-3	25%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: UK away, as underdog; SC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UK UOOO	3-1	75%	3-1
SC OUOO	3-1	75%	2-2

Went over in Q4. Of 765 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UK	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
SC	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

UK 0–3 SC SC leads · 3 games since 2023 · SC has won the last 3 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 27 2025	Kentucky 13 @ South Carolina 35	SC -6.5	SC W
Sep 7 2024	South Carolina 31 @ Kentucky 6	UK -9.5	SC W
Nov 18 2023	Kentucky 14 @ South Carolina 17	SC -2	SC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UK+5.5 →+8.1▲ 2.6#36

SC+9.4 →+9.7▲ 0.3#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

#34

Offense

Even

#44

#74

Defense

Even

#82

+0.8 #33

Turnovers

◀ UK better

−1.0 #127

62 plays #106

Pace

SC faster ▶

73 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UK has the ball

Advantage: UK offense

	UK off	SC def	Edge
Points / game	34.5 #51	24.8 #86	UK
Yards / play	6.84 #25	5.52 #82	UK
PPA / play	+0.24 #46	+0.19 #112	UK
Success rate	51% #13	38% #46	UK

When SC has the ball

Advantage: SC offense

	SC off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	38.5 #29	25.0 #88	SC
Yards / play	6.86 #24	4.98 #48	SC
PPA / play	+0.19 #60	+0.05 #65	Even
Success rate	44% #63	43% #93	SC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

UK scoring against the SC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	7.0 #59	12.0 #39	19.0 #44	8.8 #30	6.8 #80	15.5 #46
SC allowed	3.5 #44	9.5 #104	13.0 #90	5.8 #84	6.0 #71	11.8 #85

SC scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SC scored	6.8 #65	13.0 #26	19.8 #38	7.0 #50	11.8 #8	18.8 #21
UK allowed	1.8 #11	10.3 #115	12.0 #70	6.0 #90	7.0 #90	13.0 #96

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.