LSU @ Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Kentucky · Conference game

Weather at kickoff58°F13 mphgusts 34DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

LSU

4-1 · Power #6

final

Final

Kentucky

4-1 · Power #26

▲ winner

Closing spread

LSU -9.5

✓ UK W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

LSU 29–20 UK

✗ LSU (75%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLSU -10.5

CloseLSU -9.5

Total49.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLSU -10.5

1 → UK

CloseLSU -9.5

1 pt toward Kentucky

Total

Open49.5

▲ 1

Close50.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LSU -10.5 · closed LSU -9.5 · moved 1 toward UKmodel LSU -10

model LSU -10

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 51% (99 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (381 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLSU -10.5

CloseLSU -9.5

Total49.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LSU as a 9.5-point road favorite at UK, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UK won 35–34 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 50.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.5 against an average line of 7.9; 60.7 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 6 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIA @ SMU 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-8.5	20–26	L	U50.5
Very close	PSU @ MD 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-8.5	51–15	W	O50.5
Very close	SMU @ DUKE 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-11.5	28–27	L	O49.5
Very close	ORE @ WASH 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-6.5	26–14	W	U51.5
Very close	MISS @ ARK 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-8	63–31	W	O54
Very close	ORST @ CAL 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	52–40	W	O51
Very close	ND @ USC 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-7	49–35	W	O52.5
Very close	TEX @ TA&M 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	17–7	W	U50
Very close	TENN @ VAN 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-9.5	36–23	W	O47
Very close	KSU @ BYU 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	9–38	L	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LSU WLLWL	2-3	40%	0-1	2-3
UK WLWWW	4-1	80%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: LSU away, as favorite; UK home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LSU OOUUO	3-2	60%	4-1
UK UOOOO	4-1	80%	4-1

Went over in Q4. Of 783 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LSU	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
UK	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LSU+12.7 →+21.6▲ 8.9#8

UK+5.5 →+9.2▲ 3.7#33

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

LSU

Longer bar = better

#25

Offense

Even

#38

Defense

◀ LSU better

#80

0.0 #76

Turnovers

UK better ▶

+1.0 #20

83 plays #1

Pace

◀ LSU faster

65 plays #85

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LSU has the ball

Advantage: LSU offense

	LSU off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	43.6 #10	26.8 #101	LSU
Yards / play	6.60 #36	5.23 #60	LSU
PPA / play	+0.26 #32	+0.06 #58	LSU
Success rate	49% #21	44% #102	LSU

When UK has the ball

Advantage: LSU defense

	UK off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	34.6 #48	15.2 #20	LSU
Yards / play	6.41 #46	3.90 #2	LSU
PPA / play	+0.22 #47	−0.13 #5	LSU
Success rate	51% #12	28% #1	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

LSU scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	9.6 #26	9.8 #57	19.4 #40	15.2 #1	9.0 #32	24.2 #1
UK allowed	4.2 #60	9.4 #107	13.6 #92	4.8 #73	7.0 #87	11.8 #82

UK scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	5.6 #79	11.6 #32	17.2 #55	9.8 #16	6.0 #96	15.8 #40
LSU allowed	2.6 #19	4.8 #31	7.4 #18	3.4 #41	4.4 #34	7.8 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.