Tennessee @ Arkansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 4:15 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Arkansas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff87°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Tennessee

4-1 · Power #11

▲ winner

Final

Arkansas

2-3 · Power #57

final

Closing spread

TENN -13.5

✓ ARK W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

TENN 35–21 ARK

✓ TENN (83%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTENN -14

CloseTENN -13.5

Total49.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTENN -14

0.5 → ARK

CloseTENN -13.5

0.5 pts toward Arkansas

Total

Open49.5

▲ 2

Close51.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TENN -14 · closed TENN -13.5 · moved 0.5 toward ARKmodel TENN -13

model TENN -13

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 79%, covered 46% (96 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTENN -14

CloseTENN -13.5

Total49.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TENN as a 13.5-point road favorite at ARK, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TENN won 24–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.9 against an average line of 12.8; 47.5 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WASH @ UCLA 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-10.5	48–14	W	O51.5
Very close	TTU @ COLO 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	29–7	W	U50.5
Very close	LOU @ VT 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-10.5	28–16	W	U52.5
Very close	ALA @ SC 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-11.5	29–22	L	O47.5
Close	ORE @ MICH 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	38–17	W	O45.5
Close	SMU @ BC 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-10.5	45–13	W	O54.5
Close	PITT @ STAN 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-13.5	35–20	W	O51.5
Close	TEX @ UK 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-12.5	16–13	L	U45.5
Close	PSU @ ILL 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-14	30–13	W	U47.5
Close	CLEM @ FSU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-16.5	29–13	L	U47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TENN LWLWW	3-2	60%	1-0	2-2
ARK LLLWL	1-4	20%	1-2	0-3

Venue/role: TENN away, as favorite; ARK home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TENN UOUUU	1-4	20%	4-1
ARK UUOUU	1-4	20%	2-3

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 53% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TENN	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
ARK	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

TENN 15–7 ARK TENN leads · 22 games since 1907 · TENN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 11 2025	Arkansas 31 @ Tennessee 34	TENN -10.5	ARK W
Oct 5 2024	Tennessee 14 @ Arkansas 19	TENN -14.5	ARK W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TENN+14.3 →+16.3▲ 2.0#11

ARK+7.3 →+1.5▼ 5.8#60

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

TENN

Longer bar = better

ARK

#62

Offense

◀ TENN better

#113

#22

Defense

◀ TENN better

#106

+0.6 #39

Turnovers

◀ TENN better

−0.6 #108

70 plays #35

Pace

Even

70 plays #41

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TENN has the ball

Advantage: TENN offense

	TENN off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	36.8 #36	28.4 #108	TENN
Yards / play	5.93 #72	5.82 #103	TENN
PPA / play	+0.17 #64	+0.22 #121	TENN
Success rate	43% #77	43% #90	Even

When ARK has the ball

Advantage: TENN defense

	ARK off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	19.8 #116	15.2 #19	TENN
Yards / play	4.81 #130	4.71 #29	TENN
PPA / play	+0.02 #117	−0.13 #7	TENN
Success rate	42% #87	36% #32	TENN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

TENN scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	6.4 #69	9.4 #68	15.8 #64	12.6 #4	8.4 #42	21.0 #8
ARK allowed	5.6 #89	9.2 #105	14.8 #102	7.4 #110	6.2 #74	13.6 #102

ARK scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	5.4 #88	3.2 #136	8.6 #123	2.8 #123	8.4 #42	11.2 #95
TENN allowed	4.0 #56	2.0 #5	6.0 #10	2.6 #27	6.6 #78	9.2 #49

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.