Georgia @ Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Alabama · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F5 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Georgia

5-0 · Power #4

▲ winner

Final

Alabama

5-0 · Power #5

final

Closing spread

ALA -2.5

✓ UGA W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

UGA 27–30 ALA

✗ ALA (58%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUGA -3

CloseALA -2.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUGA -3

5.5 → ALA

CloseALA -2.5

5.5 pts toward Alabama

Total

Open51.5

no move

Close51.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UGA -3 · closed ALA -2.5 · moved 5.5 toward ALAmodel ALA -4

model ALA -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 52% (363 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 58% (49 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUGA -3

CloseALA -2.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 5 games most like ALA as a 2.5-point home favorite against UGA, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: UGA won 20–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 0 of the 5 similar games. 37 points stayed under 51.5, as in 2 of 5.

Favorite won

5 of 5100%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 5100%

Above normal · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 560%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 16.2 against an average line of 3.8; 59.4 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 5 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	MICH vs OSU 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	30–24	W	O47
Loose	MISS vs LSU 2025 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	24–19	W	U58
Loose	IU vs ILL 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & total	-7	63–10	W	O51
Loose	LOU vs SMU 2026 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	41–31	W	O57.5
Loose	MSST vs MIZ 2026 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	31–24	W	U58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UGA WWWWL	4-1	80%	1-0	—
ALA WWLWW	4-1	80%	2-1	4-1

Venue/role: UGA away, as underdog; ALA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UGA OOOOO	5-0	100%	5-0
ALA OOOOO	5-0	100%	5-0

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 53% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UGA	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
ALA	8-2 80%	6-3-1 67%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

UGA 27–45 ALA (3 tied) ALA leads · 75 games since 1902 · UGA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 6 2025	Georgia 28 @ Alabama 7	UGA -1.5	UGA W
Sep 27 2025	Alabama 24 @ Georgia 21	UGA -2.5	ALA W
Sep 28 2024	Georgia 34 @ Alabama 41	UGA -1.5	ALA W
Dec 2 2023	Georgia 24 @ Alabama 27	UGA -5.5	ALA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UGA+22.1 →+25.2▲ 3.1#4

ALA+20.3 →+25.9▲ 5.6#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

UGA

Longer bar = better

ALA

Offense

Even

Defense

◀ UGA better

#35

+1.2 #16

Turnovers

Even

+1.4 #8

60 plays #119

Pace

ALA faster ▶

65 plays #79

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UGA has the ball

Advantage: UGA offense

	UGA off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	51.4 #1	20.8 #51	UGA
Yards / play	7.93 #3	5.01 #49	UGA
PPA / play	+0.43 #3	−0.08 #15	Even
Success rate	57% #2	35% #26	UGA

When ALA has the ball

Even matchup

	ALA off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	49.6 #3	13.4 #15	Even
Yards / play	7.24 #9	3.89 #1	Even
PPA / play	+0.38 #5	−0.13 #4	Even
Success rate	51% #9	31% #5	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

UGA scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UGA scored	14.0 #1	16.8 #4	30.8 #1	9.6 #18	11.0 #10	20.6 #12
ALA allowed	5.6 #89	8.8 #98	14.4 #99	3.2 #35	3.2 #11	6.4 #14

ALA scoring against the UGA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	9.6 #27	18.4 #2	28.0 #4	9.2 #19	12.4 #3	21.6 #5
UGA allowed	1.4 #4	3.8 #20	5.2 #7	1.2 #6	7.0 #87	8.2 #33

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.