Auburn @ Georgia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Georgia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F12 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Auburn

3-2 · Power #25

▲ winner

Final

Georgia

6-0 · Power #4

final

Closing spread

UGA -19.5

✓ AUB W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

AUB 14–34 UGA

✗ UGA (92%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUGA -16.5

CloseUGA -19.5

Total55.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUGA -16.5

3 → UGA

CloseUGA -19.5

3 pts toward Georgia

Total

Open55.5

▼ 5

Close50.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UGA -16.5 · closed UGA -19.5 · moved 3 toward UGAmodel UGA -20

model UGA -20

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 18.5–20.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 46% (105 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (342 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUGA -16.5

CloseUGA -19.5

Total55.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UGA as a 19.5-point home favorite against AUB, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: AUB won 27–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 50.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 93%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 21.9 against an average line of 18.8; 58.1 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ALA vs FSU 2026 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & season form	-18.5	50–36	L	O50.5
Close	ALA vs MIZ 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-16	34–0	W	U51.5
Close	FSU vs SYR 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-18.5	41–3	W	U53
Close	UTAH vs KSU 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-17.5	51–47	L	O52.5
Close	ORE vs WSU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & season form	-19.5	38–24	L	O60.5
Close	ALA vs ARK 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation	-19.5	24–21	L	U45.5
Loose	MIA vs NCSU 2025 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & situation	-16.5	41–7	W	U54.5
Loose	NEB vs MD 2026 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & season form	-15.5	48–23	W	O52.5
Loose	TEX vs BYU 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & spread	-20.5	35–6	W	U49.5
Loose	UGA vs VAN 2026 · Week 5 · loose · similar season form & situation	-25.5	38–14	L	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AUB LWLLL	1-4	20%	0-1	0-2
UGA WWWLW	5-1	83%	3-1	4-1

Venue/role: AUB away, as underdog; UGA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AUB UUOUU	1-4	20%	3-2
UGA OOOOU	5-1	83%	6-0

Went over in Q4. Of 794 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AUB	5-5 50%	3-6-1 33%	4-6 40%
UGA	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

AUB 53–64 UGA (6 tied) UGA leads · 123 games since 1902 · AUB has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 11 2025	Georgia 20 @ Auburn 10	UGA -4.5	UGA W
Oct 5 2024	Auburn 13 @ Georgia 31	UGA -21.5	AUB W
Sep 30 2023	Georgia 27 @ Auburn 20	UGA -14	AUB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AUB+11.9 →+10.2▼ 1.7#30

UGA+22.1 →+25.7▲ 3.6#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

AUB

Longer bar = better

UGA

#89

Offense

UGA better ▶

#41

Defense

UGA better ▶

#12

−0.2 #87

Turnovers

UGA better ▶

+1.0 #14

70 plays #31

Pace

◀ AUB faster

61 plays #122

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AUB has the ball

Advantage: UGA defense

	AUB off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #85	14.0 #10	UGA
Yards / play	5.71 #82	4.20 #7	UGA
PPA / play	+0.07 #100	−0.06 #15	UGA
Success rate	42% #89	34% #14	UGA

When UGA has the ball

Advantage: UGA offense

	UGA off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	46.2 #2	21.4 #48	UGA
Yards / play	7.85 #2	4.76 #27	UGA
PPA / play	+0.38 #4	+0.02 #42	UGA
Success rate	53% #3	39% #48	UGA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

AUB scoring against the UGA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	6.0 #75	9.0 #69	15.0 #71	6.0 #69	5.8 #103	11.8 #89
UGA allowed	1.2 #2	5.5 #36	6.7 #10	1.5 #10	5.8 #64	7.3 #23

UGA scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UGA scored	12.2 #7	15.2 #7	27.3 #3	9.2 #17	9.7 #21	18.8 #14
AUB allowed	2.0 #11	6.2 #51	8.2 #22	6.8 #100	6.4 #78	13.2 #97

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.