Western Michigan @ Central Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 1:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Central Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff53°F9 mphDryWeather watch ›

Western Michigan

4-2 · Power #88

▲ winner

Final

Central Michigan

3-3 · Power #120

final

Closing spread

WMU -7.5

✓ CMU W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

WMU 25–17 CMU

✓ WMU (71%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWMU -7

CloseWMU -7.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWMU -7

0.5 → WMU

CloseWMU -7.5

0.5 pts toward Western Michigan

Total

Open42.5

no move

Close42.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WMU -7 · closed WMU -7.5 · moved 0.5 toward WMUmodel WMU -8

model WMU -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 52% (170 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7The team the line moved toward covered 71% (34 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWMU -7

CloseWMU -7.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WMU as a 7.5-point road favorite at CMU, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: WMU won 21–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 42.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.5 against an average line of 7.9; 51.1 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 8 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WMU @ NIU 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	35–19	W	O39.5
Very close	SDSU @ NEV 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	44–10	W	O42.5
Very close	ECU @ CLT 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	24–55	L	O47.5
Very close	WYO @ NEV 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-11	42–6	W	O41.75
Very close	RUTG @ IU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6	31–14	W	O39.5
Very close	FRES @ SDSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	18–33	L	O47.25
Very close	FRES @ AFA 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-9.5	28–36	L	O40.5
Very close	TOL @ AKR 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	14–21	L	U49.5
Very close	TROY @ ULM 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	37–14	W	O45.5
Very close	OHIO @ BUFF 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-9.5	20–10	W	U45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WMU WLLLW	3-3	50%	1-2	2-2
CMU LWLWL	2-4	33%	2-1	1-3

Venue/role: WMU away, as favorite; CMU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WMU OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2
CMU UUOOU	2-4	33%	3-3

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 53% of games with totals 38.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WMU	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
CMU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

WMU 2–1 CMU WMU leads · 3 games since 2023 · WMU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 1 2025	Central Michigan 21 @ Western Michigan 24	WMU -5.5	CMU W
Nov 19 2024	Western Michigan 14 @ Central Michigan 16	WMU -5.5	CMU W
Nov 7 2023	Central Michigan 28 @ Western Michigan 38	WMU -3	WMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WMU−4.7 →−4.5▲ 0.2#83

CMU−10.4 →−13.9▼ 3.5#121

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

WMU

Longer bar = better

CMU

#84

Offense

◀ WMU better

#117

#60

Defense

◀ WMU better

#109

+0.7 #30

Turnovers

◀ WMU better

+0.2 #60

61 plays #117

Pace

◀ WMU faster

58 plays #131

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WMU has the ball

Advantage: WMU offense

	WMU off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #90	26.3 #95	Even
Yards / play	5.44 #100	5.68 #92	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #70	+0.22 #121	WMU
Success rate	43% #75	48% #129	WMU

When CMU has the ball

Advantage: WMU defense

	CMU off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #127	17.3 #25	WMU
Yards / play	4.94 #122	5.07 #53	WMU
PPA / play	+0.06 #106	+0.08 #69	WMU
Success rate	39% #111	43% #92	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

WMU scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	5.2 #91	6.8 #104	12.0 #99	4.0 #109	9.7 #21	13.7 #66
CMU allowed	4.7 #68	12.5 #132	17.2 #119	4.7 #71	4.5 #31	9.2 #46

CMU scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	1.0 #137	5.8 #115	6.8 #132	5.7 #81	4.5 #118	10.2 #105
WMU allowed	3.7 #44	4.7 #26	8.3 #23	4.0 #53	5.0 #44	9.0 #38

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.