Kennesaw State @ Missouri State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Wed, Oct 14, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Missouri State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F5 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Kennesaw State

1-4 · Power #117

final

Final

Missouri State

1-4 · Power #130

▲ winner

Closing spread

KENN -2.5

✓ MOST W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

KENN 28–26 MOST

✗ KENN (57%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenKENN -3

CloseKENN -2.5

Total50.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game recap · 1:33

Kennesaw State at Missouri State: game recap

Made automatically (Oct 19, 1:34 PM ET). The “Model before kickoff” score on this card was updated after the video was made, so the video quotes an older one.

Watch on YouTube ↗More game recaps ›

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKENN -3

0.5 → MOST

CloseKENN -2.5

0.5 pts toward Missouri State

Total

Open50.5

▲ 2

Close52.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KENN -3 · closed KENN -2.5 · moved 0.5 toward MOSTmodel KENN -2.5 matches the line

model KENN -2.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 47% (281 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 57% (50 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenKENN -3

CloseKENN -2.5

Total50.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KENN as a 2.5-point road favorite at MOST, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MOST won 24–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 52.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.3 against an average line of 3.4; 55.3 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	EMU @ AKR 2026 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	25–23	L	U51.5
Very close	MTSU @ SHSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	20–23	L	U50
Very close	BUFF @ AKR 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1	41–30	W	O48
Very close	CSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-5.5	24–27	L	U53.75
Very close	MOST @ MTSU 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	22–20	L	U51.5
Very close	KENN @ LIB 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	48–42	W	O55.5
Very close	APP @ GAST 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	41–20	W	O55.5
Very close	MRSH @ APP 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	24–26	L	U56.5
Very close	USM @ UL 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & situation	-4.5	22–10	W	U54.5
Very close	UL @ EMU 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	31–34	L	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KENN WLWWW	4-1	80%	2-0	1-1
MOST LWLWL	2-3	40%	1-1	1-2

Venue/role: KENN away, as favorite; MOST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KENN UUUUO	1-4	20%	1-4
MOST UOOUU	2-3	40%	1-4

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KENN	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
MOST	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

KENN 2–1 MOST KENN leads · 3 games since 2019 · MOST has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 22 2025	Missouri State 34 @ Kennesaw State 41	KENN -6.5	KENN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KENN−10.4 →−11.4▼ 1.0#111

MOST−11.7 →−16.9▼ 5.2#129

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

KENN

Longer bar = better

MOST

#85

Offense

◀ KENN better

#104

#97

Defense

◀ KENN better

#125

+0.2 #56

Turnovers

Even

+0.2 #52

66 plays #76

Pace

◀ KENN faster

62 plays #108

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KENN has the ball

Advantage: KENN offense

	KENN off	MOST def	Edge
Points / game	22.6 #108	32.4 #122	Even
Yards / play	5.74 #81	6.18 #118	KENN
PPA / play	+0.11 #85	+0.25 #126	KENN
Success rate	44% #66	49% #133	KENN

When MOST has the ball

Even matchup

	MOST off	KENN def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #113	23.4 #70	KENN
Yards / play	5.52 #98	5.67 #92	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #102	+0.18 #110	Even
Success rate	40% #104	46% #117	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

KENN scoring against the MOST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENN scored	5.6 #83	8.2 #83	13.8 #83	5.8 #79	3.0 #133	8.8 #122
MOST allowed	6.0 #99	8.2 #87	14.2 #98	8.2 #121	10.0 #129	18.2 #128

MOST scoring against the KENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MOST scored	7.4 #53	4.6 #127	12.0 #98	7.0 #49	2.8 #134	9.8 #111
KENN allowed	4.2 #59	8.4 #90	12.6 #82	7.0 #103	3.8 #22	10.8 #67

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.