East Carolina @ UAB: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Thu, Oct 15, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at UAB · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

East Carolina

3-2 · Power #92

final

Final

UAB

3-3 · Power #107

▲ winner

Closing spread

ECU -5.5

✓ UAB W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

ECU 28–22 UAB

✗ ECU (66%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenECU -6.5

CloseECU -5.5

Total53.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game recap · 1:30

East Carolina at UAB: game recap

Made automatically (Oct 19, 1:39 PM ET). The “Model before kickoff” score on this card was updated after the video was made, so the video quotes an older one.

Watch on YouTube ↗More game recaps ›

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenECU -6.5

1 → UAB

CloseECU -5.5

1 pt toward UAB

Total

Open53.5

▼ 4

Close49.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ECU -6.5 · closed ECU -5.5 · moved 1 toward UABmodel ECU -6.5

model ECU -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 47% (177 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (384 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenECU -6.5

CloseECU -5.5

Total53.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ECU as a 5.5-point road favorite at UAB, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: UAB won 30–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 49.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 3.1 against an average line of 3.9; 63.7 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 8 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GAST @ CLT 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-6.25	41–25	W	O52
Very close	ORST @ NEV 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-3	37–42	L	O47
Very close	LIB @ FIU 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	27–34	L	O51.5
Very close	WSU @ ASU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & spread	-4.5	27–38	L	O49
Very close	USM @ USA 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	35–42	L	O53.5
Very close	FRES @ NEV 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	24–21	P	U50
Very close	LIB @ BUFF 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar team ratings & rest	-2.75	55–27	W	O54
Close	OHIO @ NIU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	13–23	L	U45
Close	TROY @ ULM 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	37–14	W	O45.5
Close	TEM @ TLSA 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	38–37	L	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ECU LLWLW	2-3	40%	1-1	1-2
UAB LPWLL	2-3-1	40%	1-2	2-1-1

Venue/role: ECU away, as favorite; UAB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ECU OUUUU	1-4	20%	3-2
UAB UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 24. 53% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ECU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
UAB	4-6 40%	3-6-1 33%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ECU 9–5 UAB ECU leads · 14 games since 1998 · UAB has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ECU+2.1 →−3.0▼ 5.1#79

UAB−11.8 →−11.8–#113

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

ECU

Longer bar = better

UAB

#99

Offense

Even

#105

#26

Defense

◀ ECU better

#81

0.0 #73

Turnovers

◀ ECU better

−0.3 #93

63 plays #101

Pace

UAB faster ▶

67 plays #64

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ECU has the ball

Even matchup

	ECU off	UAB def	Edge
Points / game	24.8 #95	25.8 #92	Even
Yards / play	5.44 #101	5.14 #56	UAB
PPA / play	+0.09 #93	+0.06 #62	UAB
Success rate	40% #108	45% #112	Even

When UAB has the ball

Advantage: ECU defense

	UAB off	ECU def	Edge
Points / game	22.2 #110	22.6 #62	ECU
Yards / play	5.03 #117	4.54 #17	ECU
PPA / play	+0.02 #113	−0.05 #18	ECU
Success rate	42% #78	33% #5	ECU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

ECU scoring against the UAB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ECU scored	5.6 #83	9.6 #60	15.2 #69	4.8 #97	4.8 #115	9.6 #116
UAB allowed	7.0 #114	9.0 #101	16.0 #114	5.2 #76	4.7 #34	9.8 #56

UAB scoring against the ECU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UAB scored	3.3 #112	8.8 #74	12.2 #96	1.5 #136	8.5 #43	10.0 #107
ECU allowed	3.2 #30	12.4 #128	15.6 #110	3.2 #35	3.8 #22	7.0 #17

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.