Kent State @ South Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at South Florida

Weather at kickoff71°F10 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Kent State

2-4 · Power #131

final

Final

South Florida

4-2 · Power #76

▲ winner

Closing spread

USF -20.5

✓ USF W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

KENT 13–33 USF

✓ USF (93%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUSF -18.5

CloseUSF -20.5

Total49.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSF -18.5

2 → USF

CloseUSF -20.5

2 pts toward South Florida

Total

Open49.5

▼ 3

Close46.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened USF -18.5 · closed USF -20.5 · moved 2 toward USFmodel USF -21

model USF -21

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 19.5–21.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 47% (121 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (343 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUSF -18.5

CloseUSF -20.5

Total49.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Prices

DraftKings · prices at kickoff

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	KENT	USF	Over	Under	KENT	USF
DraftKingsDK	+20.5-110	-20.5-110	46.5-108	46.5-112	+850	-1450

Last prices before kickoff from ESPN’s odds feed. One book so far. Each row is that book’s own last price, so it can differ from the closing line on this card. Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USF as a 20.5-point home favorite against KENT, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: USF won 29–2; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 46.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.5 against an average line of 19; 61.3 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 8 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GT vs BGSU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-22	27–38	L	O51.5
Very close	TOL vs EMU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-19.5	49–23	W	O45.5
Very close	USA vs CMU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & season form	-16	30–34	L	O47.5
Very close	USA vs USM 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & season form	-18.5	55–3	W	O51
Close	OHIO vs BALL 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-17.5	42–21	W	O51.5
Close	JMU vs ODU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-19.5	30–27	L	O48
Close	TOL vs WMU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-21.5	49–31	L	O52.5
Close	BOIS vs CSU 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-17.5	49–21	W	O45.5
Close	NEB vs LT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar total & spread	-20.5	28–14	L	U45
Close	MSU vs EMU 2026 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-17.5	35–7	W	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KENT WLWWL	3-3	50%	0-3	1-3
USF WWLLL	2-4	33%	1-2	1-3

Venue/role: KENT away, as underdog; USF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KENT OOUUO	4-2	67%	2-4
USF OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 12. 54% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KENT	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
USF	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KENT−18.0 →−18.8▼ 0.8#133

USF+8.1 →−2.0▼ 10.1#76

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

KENT

Longer bar = better

USF

#131

Offense

USF better ▶

#70

#113

Defense

USF better ▶

#65

−0.7 #118

Turnovers

USF better ▶

+0.3 #46

63 plays #104

Pace

◀ KENT faster

60 plays #125

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KENT has the ball

Advantage: USF defense

	KENT off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	13.7 #137	17.3 #26	USF
Yards / play	4.47 #136	5.38 #69	USF
PPA / play	+0.01 #118	+0.07 #63	USF
Success rate	35% #133	44% #102	USF

When USF has the ball

Advantage: USF offense

	USF off	KENT def	Edge
Points / game	26.2 #89	32.5 #125	USF
Yards / play	5.63 #89	6.20 #120	USF
PPA / play	+0.15 #66	+0.12 #91	USF
Success rate	47% #37	45% #116	USF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

KENT scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENT scored	2.3 #128	4.5 #128	6.8 #133	1.2 #138	5.7 #105	6.8 #135
USF allowed	2.8 #18	6.7 #59	9.5 #39	2.2 #15	5.7 #58	7.8 #24

USF scoring against the KENT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	6.8 #61	3.3 #135	10.2 #116	4.7 #98	11.3 #6	16.0 #31
KENT allowed	6.8 #110	11.5 #125	18.3 #126	5.7 #86	8.5 #118	14.2 #110

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.