Ball State @ Bowling Green: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Bowling Green · Conference game

Weather at kickoff47°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Ball State

1-5 · Power #132

▲ winner

Final

Bowling Green

2-4 · Power #129

final

Closing spread

BGSU -6

✓ BALL W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

BALL 21–28 BGSU

✗ BGSU (68%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBGSU -8.5

CloseBGSU -6

Total44.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBGSU -8.5

2.5 → BALL

CloseBGSU -6

2.5 pts toward Ball State

Total

Open44.5

▲ 2

Close46.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BGSU -8.5 · closed BGSU -6 · moved 2.5 toward BALLmodel BGSU -8.5

model BGSU -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5–7 since 2023: won 70%, covered 57% (181 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 55% (118 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBGSU -8.5

CloseBGSU -6

Total44.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BGSU as a 6-point home favorite against BALL, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: BALL won 32–31 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 46.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.9 against an average line of 6; 42.3 points a game (usually 52.5). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	RICE vs CLT 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4	20–21	L	U48
Very close	CMU vs AKR 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	41–17	W	O47.5
Very close	NEV vs HAW 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	14–27	L	U50
Close	SHSU vs FIU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	27–33	L	O42
Close	OHIO vs AKR 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-8	30–10	W	U46
Close	BALL vs KENT 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar total & team ratings	-3	17–13	W	U48.5
Close	HAW vs SHSU 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.25	37–20	W	O48
Close	SDSU vs NEV 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-11	0–6	L	U48.5
Close	LT vs UTEP 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	14–10	L	U49
Close	NIU vs KENT 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-5	31–35	L	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BALL WLLWW	3-3	50%	1-3	2-3
BGSU LLWWW	3-3	50%	2-1	1-1

Venue/role: BALL away, as underdog; BGSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BALL OOUOO	5-1	83%	1-5
BGSU OOUOO	4-2	67%	2-4

Went over in Q4. Of 601 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BALL	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
BGSU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

BALL 10–21 BGSU (1 tied) BGSU leads · 32 games since 1968 · BALL has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2024	Bowling Green 38 @ Ball State 13	BGSU -12.5	BGSU W
Nov 1 2023	Ball State 21 @ Bowling Green 24	BGSU -5	BALL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BALL−17.4 →−20.4▼ 3.0#134

BGSU−12.7 →−14.9▼ 2.2#125

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

BALL

Longer bar = better

BGSU

#121

Offense

Even

#124

#128

Defense

BGSU better ▶

#110

−0.3 #95

Turnovers

BGSU better ▶

−0.2 #80

63 plays #103

Pace

◀ BALL faster

58 plays #132

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BALL has the ball

Even matchup

	BALL off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	18.3 #125	29.2 #114	Even
Yards / play	4.89 #124	6.22 #122	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #104	+0.13 #94	Even
Success rate	35% #130	45% #110	Even

When BGSU has the ball

Even matchup

	BGSU off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	15.8 #133	39.0 #133	Even
Yards / play	4.76 #130	6.86 #134	Even
PPA / play	−0.04 #128	+0.32 #135	Even
Success rate	40% #106	45% #108	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

BALL scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	3.5 #109	5.7 #114	9.2 #121	3.7 #112	5.5 #105	9.2 #119
BGSU allowed	7.5 #119	8.5 #90	16.0 #113	2.2 #18	11.0 #136	13.2 #97

BGSU scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	1.7 #132	6.2 #107	7.8 #127	1.7 #134	6.3 #86	8.0 #130
BALL allowed	9.0 #130	10.5 #122	19.5 #129	8.2 #118	11.3 #137	19.5 #134

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.