Ball State @ Northwestern: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 12:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Northwestern

Weather at kickoff79°F11 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Ball State

1-4 · Power #132

final

Final

Northwestern

3-1 · Power #30

▲ winner

Closing spread

NU -34.5

✓ BALL W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

BALL 8–43 NU

✓ NU (99%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNU -34.5

CloseNU -34.5

Total52.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNU -34.5

no move

CloseNU -34.5

No change since the open

Total

Open52.5

▲ 1

Close53.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NU -34.5 · unchangedmodel NU -36.5

model NU -36.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 33.5–35.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 51% (64 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNU -34.5

CloseNU -34.5

Total52.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NU as a 34.5-point home favorite against BALL, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: NU won 45–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 53.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 41.2 against an average line of 33.8; 54.2 points a game (usually 56.2). Of the 6 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ARIZ vs NIU 2026 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-34.5	42–17	L	O50.5
Close	TENN vs CONN 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-35.5	59–3	W	O55.5
Close	MISS vs ULM 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-36	35–3	L	U60.5
Close	TULN vs CLT 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-31	27–0	L	U52.5
Close	MICH vs UTEP 2026 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-34.5	52–17	W	O48.5
Close	TA&M vs NMSU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation	-38.5	38–3	L	U54.5
Loose	ECU vs CLT 2025 · Week 11 · loose · similar total & season form	-28	48–22	L	O56.5
Loose	NEB vs AKR 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread & rest	-33.75	68–0	W	O47.5
Loose	IU vs PUR 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & total	-28.5	66–0	W	O56.5
Loose	TTU vs OKST 2025 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-37.5	42–0	W	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BALL LWLLW	2-3	40%	0-3	1-3
NU WWWW	4-0	100%	3-0	2-0

Venue/role: BALL away, as underdog; NU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BALL OOOUO	4-1	80%	1-4
NU OOOO	4-0	100%	3-1

Went over in Q3. Of 731 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BALL	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
NU	5-5 50%	7-2-1 78%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BALL−17.4 →−20.7▼ 3.3#134

NU+2.4 →+9.7▲ 7.3#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

BALL

Longer bar = better

#122

Offense

NU better ▶

#25

#122

Defense

NU better ▶

#72

−0.2 #81

Turnovers

NU better ▶

+1.3 #12

60 plays #122

Pace

NU faster ▶

64 plays #98

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BALL has the ball

Advantage: NU defense

	BALL off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	19.2 #119	16.8 #30	NU
Yards / play	4.96 #124	5.47 #77	NU
PPA / play	+0.06 #108	+0.10 #79	NU
Success rate	34% #135	44% #103	NU

When NU has the ball

Advantage: NU offense

	NU off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #58	37.8 #133	NU
Yards / play	6.89 #16	6.69 #128	NU
PPA / play	+0.31 #14	+0.27 #130	NU
Success rate	51% #13	43% #97	NU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

BALL scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	4.2 #101	4.0 #129	8.2 #124	4.4 #102	6.6 #82	11.0 #99
NU allowed	0.5 #1	5.8 #44	6.3 #11	4.0 #52	6.5 #79	10.5 #60

NU scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	6.0 #73	7.8 #90	13.8 #87	8.8 #30	10.5 #17	19.3 #17
BALL allowed	8.0 #124	9.2 #102	17.2 #117	7.0 #98	13.6 #138	20.6 #134

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.