Miami (OH) @ Massachusetts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 2:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Massachusetts · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F1 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Miami (OH)

2-3 · Power #106

▲ winner

Final

Massachusetts

4-1 · Power #123

final

Closing spread

M-OH -6

✓ MASS W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

M-OH 28–22 MASS

✓ M-OH (65%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenM-OH -2.5

CloseM-OH -6

Total49.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenM-OH -2.5

3.5 → M-OH

CloseM-OH -6

3.5 pts toward Miami (OH)

Total

Open49.5

▼ 5

Close44.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened M-OH -2.5 · closed M-OH -6 · moved 3.5 toward M-OHmodel M-OH -3.5

model M-OH -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5–7 since 2023: won 62%, covered 49% (153 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 50% (144 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenM-OH -2.5

CloseM-OH -6

Total49.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like M-OH as a 6-point road favorite at MASS, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: M-OH won 20–19; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 7.7 against an average line of 4.1; 48.7 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LIB @ CCU 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar rest	-2.5	34–17	W	O50.5
Close	TROY @ ARMY 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	19–0	W	U42
Loose	NCSU @ WAKE 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & season form	-7.5	34–24	W	O52.5
Loose	UVA @ CCU 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3.5	43–24	W	O52
Loose	TOL @ M-OH 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2	21–17	W	U46.5
Loose	OHIO @ BUFF 2025 · Week 14 · loose	-7	31–26	L	O44.5
Loose	JMU @ MRSH 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar spread & situation	-5	20–9	W	U49.25
Loose	GASO @ ODU 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & rest	-1	19–47	L	O51.5
Loose	M-OH @ BUFF 2025 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	37–20	W	O38.5
Loose	FRES @ NEV 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & rest	-3	24–21	P	U50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
M-OH LWWWL	3-2	60%	1-1	2-1
MASS WWLWL	3-2	60%	1-2	1-0

Venue/role: M-OH away, as favorite; MASS home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
M-OH OOOUO	4-1	80%	2-3
MASS OUUUO	2-3	40%	4-1

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 12. 54% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
M-OH	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
MASS	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

M-OH 2–0 MASS M-OH leads · 2 games since 2023 · M-OH has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 28 2024	Massachusetts 20 @ Miami (OH) 23	M-OH -15.5	MASS W
Sep 9 2023	Miami (OH) 41 @ Massachusetts 28	M-OH -7	M-OH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

M-OH−6.3 →−8.8▼ 2.5#103

MASS−25.4 →−14.4▲ 11.0#125

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

M-OH

Longer bar = better

MASS

#65

Offense

MASS better ▶

#48

#110

Defense

MASS better ▶

#37

−0.2 #80

Turnovers

MASS better ▶

+1.6 #5

58 plays #130

Pace

Even

54 plays #138

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When M-OH has the ball

Advantage: MASS defense

	M-OH off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #85	17.8 #34	MASS
Yards / play	6.44 #45	4.61 #23	MASS
PPA / play	+0.22 #49	−0.07 #17	MASS
Success rate	43% #80	41% #72	Even

When MASS has the ball

Advantage: MASS offense

	MASS off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	31.8 #63	29.2 #114	MASS
Yards / play	6.40 #47	6.31 #119	MASS
PPA / play	+0.26 #35	+0.16 #102	MASS
Success rate	46% #45	45% #106	MASS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

M-OH scoring against the MASS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	5.6 #78	15.2 #11	20.8 #27	2.6 #125	3.4 #130	6.0 #137
MASS allowed	4.2 #64	2.6 #10	6.8 #12	3.4 #41	7.6 #106	11.0 #69

MASS scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MASS scored	8.8 #35	8.8 #77	17.6 #54	8.0 #38	6.2 #92	14.2 #60
M-OH allowed	8.4 #126	4.0 #21	12.4 #78	9.8 #133	7.0 #89	16.8 #123

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.