Eastern Michigan @ Massachusetts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Massachusetts · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Eastern Michigan

2-3 · Power #128

▲ winner

Final

Massachusetts

4-0 · Power #123

final

Closing spread

MASS -5.5

✓ EMU W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

EMU 22–28 MASS

✗ MASS (66%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMASS -2.5

CloseMASS -5.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMASS -2.5

3 → MASS

CloseMASS -5.5

3 pts toward Massachusetts

Total

Open48.5

▲ 1

Close49.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MASS -2.5 · closed MASS -5.5 · moved 3 toward MASSmodel MASS -7.5

model MASS -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 53% (207 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 49% (137 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMASS -2.5

CloseMASS -5.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MASS as a 5.5-point home favorite against EMU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: EMU won 38–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 52 points went over 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 7.8 against an average line of 5.1; 43.2 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ARMY vs RICE 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation	-7.5	37–14	W	O43.5
Close	TOL vs SDSU 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	41–16	W	O50.5
Loose	CONN vs RICE 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & total	-6.5	17–10	W	U47
Loose	JXST vs EMU 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar total	-6.5	21–0	W	U51
Loose	CONN vs GAST 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & total	-7	34–27	P	O48
Loose	LT vs USM 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & total	-3	30–20	W	U51.5
Loose	LT vs WKU 2025 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & spread	-5	27–28	L	O49.5
Loose	UNM vs NMSU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & total	-2.75	17–27	L	U52.25
Loose	USM vs TROY 2025 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & total	-7	18–28	L	U50.5
Loose	NMSU vs MTSU 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation	-3.5	13–7	W	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EMU WLLLW	2-3	40%	0-2	0-2
MASS WWLW	3-1	75%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: EMU away, as underdog; MASS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
EMU UUUOU	1-4	20%	2-3
MASS OUUU	1-3	25%	4-0

Went over in Q4. Of 723 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EMU	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
MASS	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

EMU 2–0 MASS EMU leads · 2 games since 2023 · EMU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Aug 31 2024	Eastern Michigan 28 @ Massachusetts 14	MASS -2.5	EMU W
Sep 16 2023	Massachusetts 17 @ Eastern Michigan 19	EMU -9	MASS W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

EMU−12.8 →−16.4▼ 3.6#128

MASS−25.4 →−12.0▲ 13.4#115

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

EMU

Longer bar = better

MASS

#125

Offense

MASS better ▶

#37

#88

Defense

MASS better ▶

#17

0.0 #70

Turnovers

MASS better ▶

+2.5 #2

63 plays #99

Pace

◀ EMU faster

54 plays #138

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When EMU has the ball

Advantage: MASS defense

	EMU off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #125	12.8 #14	MASS
Yards / play	4.61 #134	4.26 #17	MASS
PPA / play	+0.02 #118	−0.22 #2	MASS
Success rate	38% #121	36% #36	MASS

When MASS has the ball

Advantage: MASS offense

	MASS off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	36.3 #37	27.2 #103	MASS
Yards / play	6.48 #44	5.71 #93	MASS
PPA / play	+0.32 #21	+0.10 #80	MASS
Success rate	46% #47	40% #75	MASS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

EMU scoring against the MASS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
EMU scored	4.0 #105	8.2 #82	12.2 #99	3.4 #116	3.4 #123	6.8 #131
MASS allowed	3.5 #45	1.5 #5	5.0 #6	0.8 #4	7.0 #92	7.8 #31

MASS scoring against the EMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MASS scored	11.0 #20	9.3 #73	20.3 #37	10.0 #17	6.0 #92	16.0 #44
EMU allowed	2.0 #19	11.0 #122	13.0 #87	6.8 #101	7.4 #106	14.2 #109

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.