Toledo @ Ball State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 2:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Ball State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff65°F9 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Toledo

3-1 · Power #75

▲ winner

Final

Ball State

1-3 · Power #132

final

Closing spread

TOL -20.5

✓ BALL W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

TOL 37–17 BALL

✓ TOL (93%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTOL -17.5

CloseTOL -20.5

Total51.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTOL -17.5

3 → TOL

CloseTOL -20.5

3 pts toward Toledo

Total

Open51.5

▲ 1

Close52.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TOL -17.5 · closed TOL -20.5 · moved 3 toward TOLmodel TOL -20

model TOL -20

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 18.5–22.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 46% (42 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (328 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTOL -17.5

CloseTOL -20.5

Total51.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TOL as a 20.5-point road favorite at BALL, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TOL won 39–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 52.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 93%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.8 against an average line of 21.1; 52.4 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USA @ USM 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-24	35–14	L	U54
Very close	CIN @ OKST 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-23.5	49–17	W	O57.5
Close	TROY @ ULM 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-21.5	45–14	W	O46.75
Close	ODU @ ULM 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-16.5	31–6	W	U55.5
Close	JMU @ CCU 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-24	59–10	W	O54.5
Close	UL @ USM 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-17.5	23–13	L	U57.5
Close	AFA @ HAW 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-20.5	13–27	L	U47.5
Close	WKU @ NMSU 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar total & season form	-18	41–28	L	O53.5
Close	BUFF @ KENT 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-24	31–28	L	O48.5
Close	ISU @ ARST 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-21	24–16	L	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOL PWLW	2-1-1	67%	0-0-1	2-1
BALL LWLL	1-3	25%	1-0	0-3

Venue/role: TOL away, as favorite; BALL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOL OOOO	4-0	100%	3-1
BALL OOOU	3-1	75%	1-3

Went over in Q4. Of 758 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TOL	7-3 70%	7-2-1 78%	7-3 70%
BALL	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

TOL 2–0 BALL TOL leads · 2 games since 2023 · TOL has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 22 2025	Ball State 9 @ Toledo 38	TOL -28.5	TOL W
Oct 14 2023	Toledo 13 @ Ball State 6	TOL -17.5	BALL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TOL+1.0 →−0.5▼ 1.5#70

BALL−17.4 →−21.1▼ 3.7#136

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

TOL

Longer bar = better

BALL

#26

Offense

◀ TOL better

#125

#47

Defense

◀ TOL better

#126

0.0 #77

Turnovers

BALL better ▶

+0.3 #56

66 plays #74

Pace

◀ TOL faster

60 plays #127

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TOL has the ball

Advantage: TOL offense

	TOL off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	43.3 #13	37.5 #135	TOL
Yards / play	7.12 #17	6.77 #130	TOL
PPA / play	+0.30 #24	+0.30 #135	TOL
Success rate	46% #48	44% #103	TOL

When BALL has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	BALL off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	18.0 #131	26.0 #98	TOL
Yards / play	4.70 #132	4.47 #26	TOL
PPA / play	+0.07 #101	0.00 #45	TOL
Success rate	33% #136	34% #20	TOL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

TOL scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	7.0 #59	11.3 #45	18.3 #50	13.0 #4	10.3 #24	23.3 #5
BALL allowed	8.5 #124	9.3 #102	17.8 #117	7.0 #102	12.8 #138	19.8 #136

BALL scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	3.5 #108	4.3 #127	7.8 #131	3.8 #110	6.5 #84	10.3 #101
TOL allowed	6.5 #103	5.8 #43	12.3 #77	2.3 #24	10.0 #124	12.3 #92

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.