Western Michigan @ Buffalo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Buffalo · Conference game

Weather at kickoff62°F7 mphDryWeather watch ›

Western Michigan

2-2 · Power #88

▲ winner

Final

Buffalo

2-2 · Power #125

final

Closing spread

WMU -13.5

✓ BUFF W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

WMU 30–16 BUFF

✓ WMU (83%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWMU -16.5

CloseWMU -13.5

Total51.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWMU -16.5

3 → BUFF

CloseWMU -13.5

3 pts toward Buffalo

Total

Open51.5

▼ 5

Close46.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WMU -16.5 · closed WMU -13.5 · moved 3 toward BUFFmodel WMU -12.5

model WMU -12.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 45% (92 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (257 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWMU -16.5

CloseWMU -13.5

Total51.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WMU as a 13.5-point road favorite at BUFF, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WMU won 20–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 46.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 21.1 against an average line of 12.1; 52.5 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 5 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	M-OH @ KENT 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	23–3	W	U49.5
Close	UL @ CLT 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar rest	-9.5	34–7	W	U49.5
Close	TULN @ USM 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-7.75	21–3	W	U47.5
Close	APP @ ULM 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & season form	-13.5	41–40	L	O51
Close	USA @ ULM 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-11	55–7	W	O51
Close	MEM @ RICE 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-14	38–14	W	O48.5
Close	M-OH @ BALL 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar team ratings	-13	27–21	L	P48
Close	CONN @ MASS 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-9.5	47–42	L	O49.5
Close	MRSH @ USM 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & situation	-13.5	37–3	W	U53.5
Loose	DUKE @ MTSU 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest	-14.5	45–17	W	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WMU WWLL	2-2	50%	1-1	1-1
BUFF LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	0-2

Venue/role: WMU away, as favorite; BUFF home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WMU UOOU	2-2	50%	2-2
BUFF UOOO	3-1	75%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 54% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WMU	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
BUFF	4-6 40%	2-8 20%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WMU 1–0 BUFF WMU leads · 1 game since 2023 · WMU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 19 2024	Western Michigan 48 @ Buffalo 41	WMU -1.5	WMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WMU−4.7 →−5.2▼ 0.5#87

BUFF−12.9 →−19.0▼ 6.1#132

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

WMU

Longer bar = better

BUFF

#103

Offense

◀ WMU better

#127

#79

Defense

Even

#93

+0.8 #32

Turnovers

◀ WMU better

−1.8 #137

60 plays #126

Pace

BUFF faster ▶

75 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WMU has the ball

Even matchup

	WMU off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #98	33.3 #126	WMU
Yards / play	5.00 #119	6.36 #126	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #92	+0.11 #86	Even
Success rate	40% #104	36% #32	BUFF

When BUFF has the ball

Advantage: WMU defense

	BUFF off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #116	20.0 #44	WMU
Yards / play	4.21 #136	5.34 #75	WMU
PPA / play	−0.01 #122	+0.10 #83	WMU
Success rate	33% #134	45% #115	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

WMU scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	4.3 #96	6.0 #109	10.3 #110	5.3 #86	8.5 #43	13.8 #70
BUFF allowed	11.3 #134	8.5 #90	19.8 #129	7.5 #113	6.0 #73	13.5 #101

BUFF scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	1.5 #130	8.5 #78	10.0 #117	3.8 #110	7.5 #67	11.3 #95
WMU allowed	3.8 #59	3.5 #19	7.3 #21	6.0 #89	6.8 #86	12.8 #95

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.