Louisiana @ Charlotte: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 6:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Charlotte

Weather at kickoff74°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Louisiana

2-1 · Power #81

▲ winner

Final

Charlotte

0-3 · Power #135

final

Closing spread

UL -9.5

✓ UL W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

UL 30–21 CLT

✓ UL (74%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUL -14.5

CloseUL -9.5

Total52.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUL -14.5

5 → CLT

CloseUL -9.5

5 pts toward Charlotte

Total

Open52.5

▼ 3

Close49.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UL -14.5 · closed UL -9.5 · moved 5 toward CLTmodel UL -7.5

model UL -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 51% (95 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (73 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUL -14.5

CloseUL -9.5

Total52.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UL as a 9.5-point road favorite at CLT, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 9 went over the total.

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This game: UL won 34–7; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 49.5, as in 1 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 50%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 13 against an average line of 8; 66 points a game (usually 53). Of the 9 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	WMU @ RICE 2026 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	28–21	L	O43.5
Close	TEM @ CLT 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	49–14	W	O47.5
Close	GAST @ CLT 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.25	41–25	W	O52
Close	UNLV @ NEV 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	42–17	W	O52.5
Close	UNLV @ NEV 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings & total	-7.5	45–27	W	O51.5
Close	CONN @ MASS 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	47–42	L	O49.5
Close	TOL @ CMU 2023 · Week 13 · close	-10	32–17	W	U54.5
Close	MEM @ CLT 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-10	44–38	L	O51.5
Close	TEM @ TLSA 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-4.5	38–37	L	O52.5
Close	JXST @ SHSU 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar total	-7	29–27	L	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UL WWP	2-0-1	100%	1-0	1-0-1
CLT LWW	2-1	67%	0-1	2-0

Venue/role: UL away, as favorite; CLT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UL UOU	1-2	33%	2-1
CLT OUU	1-2	33%	0-3

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 54% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UL	6-4 60%	5-4-1 56%	6-4 60%
CLT	0-10 0%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UL−10.9 →−7.1▲ 3.8#97

CLT−18.1 →−17.0▲ 1.1#131

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

Longer bar = better

CLT

#87

Offense

◀ UL better

#106

#67

Defense

◀ UL better

#126

+0.3 #61

Turnovers

◀ UL better

−0.7 #114

64 plays #92

Pace

Even

65 plays #83

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UL has the ball

Advantage: UL offense

	UL off	CLT def	Edge
Points / game	29.7 #83	36.7 #130	UL
Yards / play	6.05 #74	6.37 #119	UL
PPA / play	+0.15 #78	+0.25 #123	UL
Success rate	39% #111	49% #131	Even

When CLT has the ball

Advantage: UL defense

	CLT off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #107	23.3 #76	UL
Yards / play	5.68 #94	4.79 #49	UL
PPA / play	+0.03 #113	0.00 #44	UL
Success rate	40% #110	43% #100	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

UL scoring against the CLT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	5.7 #83	14.0 #21	19.7 #44	4.7 #92	5.3 #99	10.0 #104
CLT allowed	5.7 #92	10.0 #106	15.7 #108	6.7 #99	9.3 #115	16.0 #119

CLT scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLT scored	2.3 #122	4.7 #124	7.0 #129	4.3 #99	8.0 #54	12.3 #84
UL allowed	2.3 #24	9.3 #100	11.7 #72	2.3 #26	9.3 #115	11.7 #84

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.