Memphis @ Charlotte: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 11:00 AM EDTWeek 5 · at Charlotte · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F1 mphDryWeather watch ›

Memphis

3-1 · Power #62

▲ winner

Final

Charlotte

0-4 · Power #135

final

Closing spread

MEM -18.5

✓ MEM W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 67 pts

Model before kickoff

MEM 36–18 CLT

✓ MEM (90%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMEM -21.5

CloseMEM -18.5

Total54.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMEM -21.5

3 → CLT

CloseMEM -18.5

3 pts toward Charlotte

Total

Open54.5

▼ 2

Close52.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MEM -21.5 · closed MEM -18.5 · moved 3 toward CLTmodel MEM -16

model MEM -16

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 16.5–20.5 since 2023: won 92%, covered 41% (64 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (254 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMEM -21.5

CloseMEM -18.5

Total54.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MEM as an 18.5-point road favorite at CLT, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: MEM won 59–8; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 67 points went over 52.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 93%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 16.1 against an average line of 16.8; 44.3 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UTSA @ CLT 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-17	28–7	W	U57.5
Close	BOIS @ NEV 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & season form	-21	24–3	P	U50.5
Close	M-OH @ KENT 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & season form	-14.5	23–3	W	U49.5
Close	TOL @ MASS 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-19	41–24	L	O55.5
Close	WKU @ NMSU 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-18	41–28	L	O53.5
Close	KSU @ OKST 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar season form	-19.5	14–6	L	U50.5
Close	OHIO @ BALL 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-14	14–20	L	U52.5
Loose	UCLA @ STAN 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & total	-17	42–7	W	U52
Loose	APP @ ULM 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar total & situation	-13.5	41–40	L	O51
Loose	TULN @ CLT 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation & total	-14.5	34–3	W	U55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MEM WWLL	2-2	50%	1-1	1-1
CLT LWWL	2-2	50%	0-2	2-1

Venue/role: MEM away, as favorite; CLT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM UOOO	3-1	75%	3-1
CLT OUUU	1-3	25%	0-4

Went over in Q3. Of 752 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEM	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
CLT	0-10 0%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MEM 2–0 CLT MEM leads · 2 games since 2023 · MEM has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2024	Charlotte 28 @ Memphis 33	MEM -16.5	CLT W
Nov 11 2023	Memphis 44 @ Charlotte 38	MEM -10	CLT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MEM+1.4 →−1.6▼ 3.0#72

CLT−18.1 →−19.2▼ 1.1#133

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

MEM

Longer bar = better

CLT

#31

Offense

◀ MEM better

#125

#102

Defense

Even

#112

−0.3 #88

Turnovers

◀ MEM better

−1.3 #131

63 plays #104

Pace

◀ MEM faster

60 plays #121

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MEM has the ball

Advantage: MEM offense

	MEM off	CLT def	Edge
Points / game	33.5 #56	36.0 #131	MEM
Yards / play	8.13 #3	5.63 #90	MEM
PPA / play	+0.29 #27	+0.16 #102	MEM
Success rate	48% #36	46% #124	MEM

When CLT has the ball

Advantage: MEM defense

	CLT off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	19.5 #124	26.0 #97	MEM
Yards / play	5.18 #116	6.53 #127	Even
PPA / play	−0.10 #134	+0.17 #105	MEM
Success rate	37% #127	41% #77	MEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MEM scoring against the CLT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MEM scored	4.3 #97	13.8 #21	18.0 #52	9.5 #20	6.0 #91	15.5 #46
CLT allowed	5.0 #81	9.3 #101	14.3 #103	6.8 #98	11.3 #133	18.0 #129

CLT scoring against the MEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLT scored	1.8 #130	5.3 #119	7.0 #133	3.3 #118	6.0 #91	9.3 #114
MEM allowed	1.5 #8	12.3 #131	13.8 #95	7.0 #102	5.3 #57	12.3 #90

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.