Charlotte @ North Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at North Texas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff91°F8 mphDryWeather watch ›

Charlotte

0-5 · Power #135

final

Final

North Texas

3-2 · Power #54

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNT -27.5

✓ UNT W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

CLT 15–43 UNT

✓ UNT (98%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUNT -23.5

CloseUNT -27.5

Total62.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNT -23.5

4 → UNT

CloseUNT -27.5

4 pts toward North Texas

Total

Open62.5

▼ 4

Close58.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNT -23.5 · closed UNT -27.5 · moved 4 toward UNTmodel UNT -30

model UNT -30

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 26.5–28.5 since 2023: won 99%, covered 57% (92 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (215 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUNT -23.5

CloseUNT -27.5

Total62.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNT as a 27.5-point home favorite against CLT, the favorite won 10, covered 3, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: UNT won 50–10; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 60 points went over 58.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 95%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Below normal · usually 57%

Overs below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 25.9 against an average line of 27.1; 43.3 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	VAN vs BALL 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-27.5	24–14	L	U57.5
Close	USF vs RICE 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & situation	-28.5	52–3	W	U57.5
Close	MEM vs MTSU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-27	24–7	L	U61.5
Close	ODU vs GAST 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & rest	-28.5	27–10	L	U58.5
Close	BGSU vs KENT 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-24	27–6	L	U54.5
Close	TXST vs USM 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & rest	-27.5	58–3	W	O56.5
Loose	TULN vs CLT 2025 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & situation	-31	27–0	L	U52.5
Loose	BOIS vs UNM 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & situation	-27.5	42–14	W	U59
Loose	KU vs OKST 2025 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & situation	-24.5	38–21	L	O54.5
Loose	FRES vs NEV 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & rest	-24.5	27–9	L	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLT LWWLL	2-3	40%	2-0	2-2
UNT WWLWL	3-2	60%	2-0	1-1

Venue/role: CLT away, as underdog; UNT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLT OUUUO	2-3	40%	0-5
UNT OUOOO	4-1	80%	3-2

Went over in Q4. Of 521 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLT	0-10 0%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
UNT	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CLT 0–1 UNT UNT leads · 1 game since 2023 · UNT has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 24 2025	North Texas 54 @ Charlotte 20	UNT -25.5	UNT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLT−18.1 →−22.1▼ 4.0#137

UNT+4.5 →+2.1▼ 2.4#59

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

CLT

Longer bar = better

UNT

#127

Offense

UNT better ▶

#19

#123

Defense

Even

#111

−1.8 #137

Turnovers

UNT better ▶

0.0 #74

56 plays #136

Pace

UNT faster ▶

74 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLT has the ball

Even matchup

	CLT off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	17.2 #132	33.0 #124	Even
Yards / play	5.19 #115	5.62 #90	UNT
PPA / play	−0.08 #131	+0.18 #108	UNT
Success rate	36% #129	46% #120	Even

When UNT has the ball

Advantage: UNT offense

	UNT off	CLT def	Edge
Points / game	40.6 #18	40.6 #136	UNT
Yards / play	7.11 #12	6.10 #113	UNT
PPA / play	+0.32 #13	+0.19 #112	UNT
Success rate	48% #34	49% #130	UNT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

CLT scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLT scored	1.4 #134	4.2 #128	5.6 #137	4.2 #104	4.8 #112	9.0 #120
UNT allowed	8.4 #127	8.8 #96	17.2 #119	4.8 #70	9.8 #125	14.6 #116

UNT scoring against the CLT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	7.4 #55	12.4 #26	19.8 #34	11.8 #8	7.6 #62	19.4 #14
CLT allowed	6.8 #106	9.4 #107	16.2 #116	9.6 #133	11.8 #137	21.4 #136

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.