UAB @ Memphis: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Memphis · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F8 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

UAB

3-2 · Power #107

final

Final

Memphis

4-1 · Power #62

▲ winner

Closing spread

MEM -15.5

✓ MEM W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

UAB 20–36 MEM

✓ MEM (87%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMEM -14

CloseMEM -15.5

Total59.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMEM -14

1.5 → MEM

CloseMEM -15.5

1.5 pts toward Memphis

Total

Open59.5

▼ 4

Close55.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MEM -14 · closed MEM -15.5 · moved 1.5 toward MEMmodel MEM -16.5

model MEM -16.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 14.5–16.5 since 2023: won 88%, covered 48% (130 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (343 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMEM -14

CloseMEM -15.5

Total59.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MEM as a 15.5-point home favorite against UAB, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: MEM won 38–13; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 55.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 87%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.1 against an average line of 16.4; 48.9 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	WSU vs WYO 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-18.5	14–15	L	U55
Close	TOL vs BUFF 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & situation	-14.5	31–13	W	U47.25
Close	UNLV vs NEV 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-17.5	38–14	W	U54.5
Close	UTSA vs RICE 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	34–14	W	U54.25
Close	TULN vs FAU 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	35–24	L	U60.5
Close	MSU vs EMU 2026 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-17.5	35–7	W	U49.5
Close	BOIS vs FRES 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-17.5	7–30	L	U47.5
Close	GT vs SYR 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-17.5	41–16	W	O52.5
Close	SJSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	24–13	L	U48.5
Close	LOU vs BC 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-14	56–28	W	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UAB WLPWL	2-2-1	50%	1-0-1	2-0-1
MEM WWLLW	3-2	60%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: UAB away, as underdog; MEM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UAB OUUUU	1-4	20%	3-2
MEM UOOOO	4-1	80%	4-1

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 50% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UAB	4-6 40%	3-6-1 33%	2-8 20%
MEM	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

UAB 1–2 MEM MEM leads · 3 games since 2023 · UAB has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 18 2025	Memphis 24 @ UAB 31	MEM -23.5	UAB W
Nov 16 2024	UAB 18 @ Memphis 53	MEM -17.5	MEM W
Oct 21 2023	Memphis 45 @ UAB 21	MEM -7.5	MEM W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UAB−11.8 →−11.3▲ 0.5#112

MEM+1.4 →+1.4–#61

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

UAB

Longer bar = better

MEM

#96

Offense

MEM better ▶

#16

#65

Defense

◀ UAB better

#86

+0.2 #58

Turnovers

MEM better ▶

+0.6 #43

66 plays #73

Pace

MEM faster ▶

68 plays #53

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UAB has the ball

Even matchup

	UAB off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #98	22.4 #57	MEM
Yards / play	5.17 #116	6.36 #121	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #100	+0.16 #103	Even
Success rate	44% #68	40% #61	Even

When MEM has the ball

Advantage: MEM offense

	MEM off	UAB def	Edge
Points / game	38.6 #24	23.4 #67	MEM
Yards / play	7.98 #2	4.97 #46	MEM
PPA / play	+0.29 #19	+0.02 #47	MEM
Success rate	50% #18	43% #98	MEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

UAB scoring against the MEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UAB scored	2.6 #122	9.4 #68	12.0 #96	1.8 #133	10.2 #17	12.0 #87
MEM allowed	1.2 #4	9.8 #113	11.0 #60	7.2 #106	4.2 #29	11.4 #78

MEM scoring against the UAB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MEM scored	6.2 #69	13.0 #21	19.2 #42	11.8 #7	7.6 #57	19.4 #14
UAB allowed	7.0 #111	10.2 #118	17.2 #118	3.4 #41	2.8 #6	6.2 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.