Nevada @ UTEP: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at UTEP · Conference game

Weather at kickoff87°F8 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Nevada

1-3 · Power #109

▲ winner

Final

UTEP

1-4 · Power #136

final

Closing spread

NEV -10

✓ NEV W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

NEV 30–21 UTEP

✓ NEV (74%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNEV -9.5

CloseNEV -10

Total52.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNEV -9.5

0.5 → NEV

CloseNEV -10

0.5 pts toward Nevada

Total

Open52.5

▼ 4

Close48.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NEV -9.5 · closed NEV -10 · moved 0.5 toward NEVmodel NEV -5.5

model NEV -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 9–11 since 2023: won 77%, covered 56% (81 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNEV -9.5

CloseNEV -10

Total52.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NEV as a 10-point road favorite at UTEP, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: NEV won 30–13; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 48.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.8 against an average line of 9.4; 61.4 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 8 overs, 5 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	JXST @ SHSU 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-7	29–27	L	O53.5
Close	FIU @ UTEP 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & season form	-7	21–30	L	O47
Close	SJSU @ NEV 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-9.5	10–55	L	O49.5
Close	FIU @ SHSU 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & season form	-10.5	56–16	W	O50.5
Close	BGSU @ KENT 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & total	-7.5	21–24	L	U47.5
Close	EMU @ KENT 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation	-14	52–33	W	O46
Close	FIU @ KENN 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-9	26–27	L	O42
Close	WMU @ MASS 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-12.5	21–3	W	U46.5
Close	UTSA @ TLSA 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-9.5	45–46	L	O52.5
Close	UNLV @ NEV 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-7.5	45–27	W	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEV WLLW	2-2	50%	0-1	0-1
UTEP LWLLL	1-4	20%	1-1	0-4

Venue/role: NEV away, as favorite; UTEP home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEV OUUO	2-2	50%	1-3
UTEP UOOUO	3-2	60%	1-4

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 53% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEV	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
UTEP	1-9 10%	1-9 10%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NEV−13.2 →−13.8▼ 0.6#120

UTEP−15.9 →−21.6▼ 5.7#135

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

NEV

Longer bar = better

UTEP

#88

Offense

◀ NEV better

#133

#74

Defense

◀ NEV better

#133

−1.3 #134

Turnovers

UTEP better ▶

−0.6 #104

63 plays #100

Pace

◀ NEV faster

55 plays #137

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NEV has the ball

Advantage: NEV offense

	NEV off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	27.3 #81	41.4 #137	NEV
Yards / play	6.03 #68	6.37 #122	NEV
PPA / play	+0.08 #102	+0.32 #136	NEV
Success rate	41% #99	52% #137	NEV

When UTEP has the ball

Advantage: NEV defense

	UTEP off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	16.4 #133	24.3 #74	NEV
Yards / play	4.83 #128	5.02 #52	NEV
PPA / play	−0.20 #138	+0.14 #93	NEV
Success rate	34% #133	41% #77	NEV

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

NEV scoring against the UTEP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	7.8 #49	2.5 #137	10.3 #112	7.0 #50	8.5 #41	15.5 #46
UTEP allowed	11.8 #136	7.2 #70	19.0 #128	13.6 #138	8.8 #119	22.4 #138

UTEP scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTEP scored	2.8 #120	4.2 #128	7.0 #130	5.6 #82	3.8 #126	9.4 #115
NEV allowed	5.0 #80	6.0 #46	11.0 #60	2.5 #26	8.5 #116	11.0 #71

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.