North Dakota State @ UNLV: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at UNLV · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

North Dakota State

5-0 · Power #74

final

Final

UNLV

3-2 · Power #84

▲ winner

Closing spread

NDSU -3

✓ UNLV W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 20 pts

Model before kickoff

NDSU 25–23 UNLV

✗ NDSU (54%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNDSU -4

CloseNDSU -3

Total49.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNDSU -4

1 → UNLV

CloseNDSU -3

1 pt toward UNLV

Total

Open49.5

▼ 2

Close47.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NDSU -4 · closed NDSU -3 · moved 1 toward UNLVmodel UNLV -4

model UNLV -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 61%, covered 50% (226 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3The team the line moved toward covered 45% (24 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNDSU -4

CloseNDSU -3

Total49.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NDSU as a 3-point road favorite at UNLV, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 0 went over the total.

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This game: UNLV won 13–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 20 points stayed under 47.5, as in 10 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

0 of 100%

Below normal · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1 against an average line of 2.9; 37 points a game (usually 52.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	OHIO @ NIU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	13–23	L	U45
Close	SDSU @ UNM 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	17–23	L	U41.5
Close	ISU @ COLO 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	17–24	L	U52.5
Close	TOL @ M-OH 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-2	21–17	W	U46.5
Close	UVA @ FSU 2026 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	7–38	L	U51.5
Close	ARMY @ TEM 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar total & season form	-4	21–17	P	U48.5
Close	SDSU @ FRES 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-3	23–0	W	U46
Close	ARIZ @ ASU 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-2	23–7	W	U48.5
Close	LIB @ SHSU 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	18–20	L	U47.5
Close	LT @ UTEP 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	30–11	W	U48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NDSU WLWLW	3-2	60%	1-1	3-2
UNLV LWLWW	3-2	60%	1-1	—

Venue/role: NDSU away, as favorite; UNLV home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NDSU UUOUU	1-4	20%	5-0
UNLV UUUUO	1-4	20%	3-2

Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 53% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NDSUlast 6	5-1 83%	4-2 67%	2-4 33%
UNLV	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NDSU 0–1 UNLV UNLV leads · 1 game since 2026 · UNLV has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NDSU−11.9 →−2.2▲ 9.7#77

UNLV−0.6 →−2.5▼ 1.9#79

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

NDSU

Longer bar = better

UNLV

#66

Offense

◀ NDSU better

#99

#14

Defense

◀ NDSU better

#65

+1.6 #7

Turnovers

◀ NDSU better

0.0 #75

65 plays #88

Pace

UNLV faster ▶

67 plays #61

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NDSU has the ball

Even matchup

	NDSU off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	33.6 #54	23.6 #70	Even
Yards / play	5.81 #81	5.58 #86	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #55	+0.05 #54	Even
Success rate	43% #72	39% #51	UNLV

When UNLV has the ball

Advantage: NDSU defense

	UNLV off	NDSU def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #94	9.8 #2	NDSU
Yards / play	5.86 #79	4.17 #10	NDSU
PPA / play	+0.09 #96	−0.21 #2	NDSU
Success rate	37% #127	37% #41	NDSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

NDSU scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NDSU scored	9.0 #31	12.4 #27	21.4 #23	8.2 #31	4.0 #124	12.2 #83
UNLV allowed	5.4 #86	4.0 #23	9.4 #39	9.0 #129	5.2 #47	14.2 #112

UNLV scoring against the NDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	4.2 #100	9.6 #64	13.8 #84	5.4 #84	5.8 #101	11.2 #95
NDSU allowed	1.4 #5	3.2 #14	4.6 #5	0.0 #1	5.2 #47	5.2 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.