UNLV @ Air Force: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Air Force · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F9 mphDryWeather watch ›

UNLV

4-2 · Power #84

final

Final

Air Force

4-1 · Power #90

▲ winner

Closing spread

AFA -1.5

✓ AFA W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 72 pts

Model before kickoff

UNLV 23–25 AFA

✓ AFA (54%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUNLV -3

CloseAFA -1.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNLV -3

4.5 → AFA

CloseAFA -1.5

4.5 pts toward Air Force

Total

Open48.5

▲ 1

Close49.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNLV -3 · closed AFA -1.5 · moved 4.5 toward AFAmodel AFA -1

model AFA -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 52%, covered 49% (227 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 57% (52 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUNLV -3

CloseAFA -1.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like AFA as a 1.5-point home favorite against UNLV, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: AFA won 41–31; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 72 points went over 49.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.8 against an average line of 1.9; 51.6 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL vs SDSU 2026 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	41–16	W	O50.5
Very close	WMU vs OHIO 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	17–13	W	U47
Very close	UCF vs HOU 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	27–30	L	O47.5
Very close	GAST vs ODU 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	42–10	W	O51.5
Close	LT vs ARMY 2026 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	31–29	W	O46.5
Close	CSU vs HAW 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	19–31	L	U53.5
Close	VT vs WAKE 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Close	ODU vs MRSH 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-3	35–42	L	O51.5
Close	LIB vs WKU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-1	38–21	W	O55.5
Close	SC vs UK 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	17–14	W	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNLV WLWWW	4-2	67%	2-1	1-0
AFA WLLWW	3-2	60%	2-1	3-1

Venue/role: UNLV away, as underdog; AFA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNLV UUUOU	1-5	17%	4-2
AFA UOOUU	2-3	40%	4-1

Went over in Q4. Of 755 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNLV	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%
AFA	6-4 60%	4-5 44%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

UNLV 8–19 AFA AFA leads · 27 games since 1981 · AFA has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 11 2025	Air Force 48 @ UNLV 51	UNLV -7.5	AFA W
Nov 18 2023	UNLV 31 @ Air Force 27	AFA -3	UNLV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNLV−0.6 →−2.5▼ 1.9#78

AFA−15.2 →−6.7▲ 8.5#95

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

UNLV

Longer bar = better

AFA

#106

Offense

AFA better ▶

#62

#52

Defense

Even

#39

+0.3 #48

Turnovers

Even

+0.2 #54

67 plays #64

Pace

AFA faster ▶

73 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNLV has the ball

Advantage: AFA defense

	UNLV off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #104	17.4 #27	AFA
Yards / play	5.56 #93	5.38 #70	AFA
PPA / play	+0.07 #101	−0.01 #34	AFA
Success rate	37% #125	36% #24	AFA

When AFA has the ball

Even matchup

	AFA off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	28.8 #72	20.8 #47	UNLV
Yards / play	5.45 #99	5.48 #75	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.21 #47	+0.02 #40	Even
Success rate	48% #30	39% #47	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

UNLV scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	4.7 #93	8.0 #86	12.7 #94	5.0 #89	5.3 #110	10.3 #104
AFA allowed	3.4 #37	6.2 #51	9.6 #43	4.0 #54	2.6 #7	6.6 #13

AFA scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	3.4 #116	10.8 #41	14.2 #82	4.8 #96	8.0 #48	12.8 #78
UNLV allowed	4.5 #62	4.5 #24	9.0 #30	7.5 #110	4.3 #29	11.8 #77

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.