New Mexico @ Hawai'i: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Hawai'i · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F12 mphgusts 29DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New Mexico

4-1 · Power #56

▲ winner

Final

Hawai'i

1-5 · Power #118

final

Closing spread

UNM -14.5

✓ HAW W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

UNM 31–17 HAW

✓ UNM (85%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUNM -15.5

CloseUNM -14.5

Total48.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNM -15.5

1 → HAW

CloseUNM -14.5

1 pt toward Hawai'i

Total

Open48.5

▼ 2

Close46.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened UNM -15.5 · closed UNM -14.5 · moved 1 toward HAWmodel UNM -13.5

model UNM -13.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 79%, covered 50% (80 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (396 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUNM -15.5

CloseUNM -14.5

Total48.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Prices

DraftKings · prices at kickoff

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	UNM	HAW	Over	Under	UNM	HAW
DraftKingsDK	-14.5-110	+14.5-110	46.5-112	46.5-108	-675	+490

Last prices before kickoff from ESPN’s odds feed. One book so far. Each row is that book’s own last price, so it can differ from the closing line on this card. Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNM as a 14.5-point road favorite at HAW, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: UNM won 21–10; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 46.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Below normal · usually 86%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 8 against an average line of 13.1; 50.4 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 7 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TOL @ WMU 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-13	13–14	L	U48.5
Close	NAVY @ RICE 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar total & spread	-12.5	10–24	L	U49
Close	HOU @ ORST 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-11.5	27–24	L	O48.5
Close	UNLV @ HAW 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-12.5	29–27	L	O50.5
Close	MD @ NU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-14	27–33	L	O48.5
Close	UNM @ NMSU 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar total	-11.5	42–18	W	O47.5
Close	PITT @ STAN 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar spread	-13.5	35–20	W	O51.5
Close	ARMY @ TLSA 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-13.5	49–7	W	O50.5
Close	IU @ NU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-12.5	41–24	W	O40.5
Close	JMU @ ULM 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & total	-16.5	19–21	L	U48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNM WWWWW	5-0	100%	2-0	4-0
HAW LWLLW	2-4	33%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: UNM away, as favorite; HAW home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNM UOUOO	3-2	60%	4-1
HAW UUUUU	1-5	17%	1-5

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 54% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNM	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	4-6 40%
HAW	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

UNM 1–1 HAW Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · HAW has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	New Mexico 30 @ Hawai'i 38	UNM -6.5	HAW W
Oct 21 2023	Hawai'i 21 @ New Mexico 42	HAW -1.5	UNM W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNM−4.8 →+3.5▲ 8.3#54

HAW−7.0 →−13.4▼ 6.4#119

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

UNM

Longer bar = better

HAW

#39

Offense

◀ UNM better

#122

Defense

◀ UNM better

#112

+3.6 #1

Turnovers

◀ UNM better

−0.5 #101

65 plays #85

Pace

HAW faster ▶

71 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNM has the ball

Advantage: UNM offense

	UNM off	HAW def	Edge
Points / game	43.4 #2	25.7 #90	UNM
Yards / play	5.94 #65	6.16 #117	UNM
PPA / play	+0.22 #37	+0.22 #120	UNM
Success rate	45% #53	46% #120	UNM

When HAW has the ball

Advantage: UNM defense

	HAW off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	16.7 #132	10.6 #1	UNM
Yards / play	4.97 #123	4.52 #14	UNM
PPA / play	+0.02 #117	−0.22 #1	UNM
Success rate	39% #117	30% #1	UNM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

UNM scoring against the HAW defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	8.4 #33	13.6 #13	22.0 #15	13.2 #1	8.2 #47	21.4 #3
HAW allowed	4.0 #47	10.2 #117	14.2 #98	4.2 #56	7.3 #97	11.5 #73

HAW scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HAW scored	2.5 #124	3.8 #136	6.3 #134	3.2 #127	7.2 #62	10.3 #106
UNM allowed	1.4 #3	2.0 #3	3.4 #1	1.4 #6	5.8 #62	7.2 #17

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.