Hawai'i @ Arizona State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Arizona State

Weather at kickoff80°F1 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Hawai'i

1-4 · Power #118

final

Final

Arizona State

2-2 · Power #66

▲ winner

Closing spread

ASU -20.5

✓ HAW W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

HAW 15–36 ASU

✓ ASU (93%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenASU -20.5

CloseASU -20.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenASU -20.5

no move

CloseASU -20.5

No change since the open

Total

Open51.5

no move

Close51.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ASU -20.5 · unchangedmodel ASU -22

model ASU -22

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 19.5–21.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 48% (119 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenASU -20.5

CloseASU -20.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ASU as a 20.5-point home favorite against HAW, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ASU won 30–12; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 51.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 93%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15 against an average line of 19.8; 56 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MSST vs WMU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-21	41–28	L	O55
Very close	GT vs BGSU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-22	27–38	L	O51.5
Very close	FRES vs NMSU 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-20	48–0	W	U48.5
Very close	TULN vs USM 2026 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-17.5	24–21	L	U52.5
Very close	FLA vs VAN 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & season form	-18.5	38–14	W	O51
Very close	BOIS vs CSU 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-17.5	49–21	W	O45.5
Close	KSU vs ARMY 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & total	-16.75	21–24	L	U48.5
Close	IU vs AKR 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-16.5	29–27	L	O46
Close	WIS vs EMU 2026 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-23.5	54–10	W	O43.5
Close	TULN vs TLSA 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-24.5	24–22	L	U52.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HAW LLWLL	1-4	20%	0-2	0-2
ASU WLWL	2-2	50%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: HAW away, as underdog; ASU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HAW OUUUU	1-4	20%	1-4
ASU OOUO	3-1	75%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 12. 53% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HAW	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
ASU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HAW−7.0 →−12.8▼ 5.8#116

ASU+6.4 →+2.6▼ 3.8#58

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

HAW

Longer bar = better

ASU

#117

Offense

ASU better ▶

#74

#103

Defense

ASU better ▶

#88

−0.4 #97

Turnovers

◀ HAW better

−1.0 #129

71 plays #26

Pace

◀ HAW faster

69 plays #46

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HAW has the ball

Advantage: ASU defense

	HAW off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	17.6 #127	31.8 #118	Even
Yards / play	5.10 #115	5.42 #71	ASU
PPA / play	+0.04 #111	+0.16 #106	Even
Success rate	39% #116	40% #58	ASU

When ASU has the ball

Advantage: ASU offense

	ASU off	HAW def	Edge
Points / game	33.3 #51	24.8 #80	ASU
Yards / play	6.16 #54	6.02 #111	ASU
PPA / play	+0.04 #110	+0.20 #114	Even
Success rate	42% #80	45% #108	ASU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

HAW scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HAW scored	2.4 #124	4.0 #129	6.4 #135	3.8 #111	7.4 #63	11.2 #94
ASU allowed	7.0 #112	6.8 #59	13.8 #95	7.0 #102	11.0 #135	18.0 #126

ASU scoring against the HAW defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	10.3 #19	10.3 #53	20.5 #29	10.3 #14	2.5 #136	12.8 #80
HAW allowed	3.4 #40	10.2 #120	13.6 #93	3.6 #46	7.6 #103	11.2 #74

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.