Iowa State @ BYU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Fri, Oct 9, 2026, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at BYU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F7 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Iowa State

3-2 · Power #49

final

Final

BYU

4-0 · Power #14

▲ winner

Closing spread

BYU -11.5

✓ BYU W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

ISU 18–30 BYU

✓ BYU (80%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBYU -14.5

CloseBYU -11.5

Total50.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBYU -14.5

3 → ISU

CloseBYU -11.5

3 pts toward Iowa State

Total

Open50.5

▼ 4

Close46.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BYU -14.5 · closed BYU -11.5 · moved 3 toward ISUmodel BYU -13.5

model BYU -13.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 10.5–12.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 42% (131 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 52% (263 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBYU -14.5

CloseBYU -11.5

Total50.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BYU as an 11.5-point home favorite against ISU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BYU won 24–10; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 46.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 78%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.2 against an average line of 11; 54.6 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KSU vs ISU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	35–42	L	O46.25
Close	ISU vs BAY 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & rest	-13	43–21	W	O45
Close	HOU vs UCF 2026 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-10.5	27–17	L	U50.5
Close	SMU vs CAL 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-12.5	38–6	W	U54.5
Close	ALA vs AUB 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & rest	-11	28–14	W	U51
Close	SC vs MIZ 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-10.5	34–30	L	O42.5
Close	UTAH vs COLO 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & total	-14	53–7	W	O50
Close	MIA vs LOU 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-10.5	21–24	L	U49.5
Close	ARK vs BYU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest	-8.25	31–38	L	O47.75
Close	LOU vs VT 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation	-9.75	34–3	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ISU LWWLP	2-2-1	50%	1-0	1-1
BYU WWWW	4-0	100%	2-0	4-0

Venue/role: ISU away, as underdog; BYU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ISU UUOOO	3-2	60%	3-2
BYU OUOU	2-2	50%	4-0

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 54% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ISU	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	4-6 40%
BYU	8-2 80%	7-2 78%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

ISU 5–2 BYU ISU leads · 7 games since 1968 · BYU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 25 2025	BYU 41 @ Iowa State 27	ISU -2.5	BYU W
Nov 11 2023	Iowa State 45 @ BYU 13	ISU -7.5	ISU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ISU+6.2 →+5.2▼ 1.0#48

BYU+10.7 →+12.8▲ 2.1#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

ISU

Longer bar = better

BYU

#67

Offense

BYU better ▶

#18

#64

Defense

BYU better ▶

#19

+0.4 #47

Turnovers

BYU better ▶

+1.3 #11

63 plays #105

Pace

Even

61 plays #116

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ISU has the ball

Advantage: BYU defense

	ISU off	BYU def	Edge
Points / game	33.6 #53	14.3 #18	BYU
Yards / play	6.24 #55	4.50 #16	BYU
PPA / play	+0.18 #62	−0.08 #14	BYU
Success rate	41% #97	36% #28	BYU

When BYU has the ball

Advantage: BYU offense

	BYU off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	37.3 #32	21.2 #53	BYU
Yards / play	6.81 #23	5.34 #68	BYU
PPA / play	+0.37 #7	+0.08 #71	BYU
Success rate	51% #10	40% #62	BYU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

ISU scoring against the BYU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	8.4 #42	11.0 #42	19.4 #42	6.0 #75	8.2 #47	14.2 #62
BYU allowed	4.3 #71	3.5 #20	7.8 #21	1.8 #14	4.8 #41	6.5 #18

BYU scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BYU scored	10.5 #18	13.0 #26	23.5 #14	7.8 #42	6.0 #94	13.8 #70
ISU allowed	5.6 #91	6.8 #62	12.4 #79	2.8 #32	6.0 #70	8.8 #40

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.