UCF @ Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Houston · Conference game

Weather at kickoff82°F8 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

UCF

3-1 · Power #55

final

Final

Houston

3-1 · Power #21

▲ winner

Closing spread

HOU -10.5

✓ UCF W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

UCF 20–30 HOU

✓ HOU (77%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenHOU -12.5

CloseHOU -10.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -12.5

2 → UCF

CloseHOU -10.5

2 pts toward UCF

Total

Open51.5

▼ 1

Close50.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -12.5 · closed HOU -10.5 · moved 2 toward UCFmodel HOU -10

model HOU -10

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 76%, covered 44% (163 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (255 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenHOU -12.5

CloseHOU -10.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 10.5-point home favorite against UCF, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 27–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 50.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.5 against an average line of 11.1; 54.3 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN vs UCF 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	20–11	L	U55.5
Very close	SMU vs CAL 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-12.5	38–6	W	U54.5
Very close	LOU vs VT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-9.75	34–3	W	U48.5
Very close	KSU vs ISU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	35–42	L	O46.25
Very close	LOU vs WAKE 2026 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-11.5	27–30	L	U57.5
Very close	FSU vs PITT 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	31–34	L	O57
Close	KU vs BYU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	38–27	W	O54.5
Close	KU vs WVU 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-12.5	41–10	W	U54.5
Close	FSU vs DUKE 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-14	38–20	W	O49
Close	MSST vs TOL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	17–41	L	O57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCF WWLW	3-1	75%	1-0	2-0
HOU LWWL	2-2	50%	1-1	1-2

Venue/role: UCF away, as underdog; HOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCF OUOU	2-2	50%	3-1
HOU OOOO	4-0	100%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 53% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCF	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	6-4 60%
HOU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

UCF 1–1 HOU Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · HOU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 7 2025	Houston 30 @ UCF 27	UCF -1.5	HOU W
Nov 25 2023	Houston 13 @ UCF 27	UCF -16	HOU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCF+0.7 →+3.7▲ 3.0#54

HOU+3.9 →+9.8▲ 5.9#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

UCF

Longer bar = better

HOU

#74

Offense

HOU better ▶

#26

Defense

◀ UCF better

#73

+1.3 #13

Turnovers

◀ UCF better

+0.8 #37

56 plays #137

Pace

HOU faster ▶

69 plays #51

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCF has the ball

Even matchup

	UCF off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	36.3 #38	20.5 #48	Even
Yards / play	6.38 #53	5.43 #78	UCF
PPA / play	+0.03 #116	+0.10 #82	HOU
Success rate	42% #88	42% #85	Even

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	44.5 #9	15.3 #24	Even
Yards / play	7.38 #11	4.68 #35	HOU
PPA / play	+0.38 #9	−0.06 #20	Even
Success rate	55% #5	35% #23	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

UCF scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	11.3 #18	6.8 #102	18.0 #53	10.5 #15	7.8 #56	18.3 #26
HOU allowed	1.8 #10	7.0 #66	8.8 #37	6.5 #97	5.3 #58	11.8 #86

HOU scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	15.3 #2	13.0 #25	28.3 #5	9.5 #21	6.8 #79	16.3 #42
UCF allowed	4.3 #64	7.3 #72	11.5 #71	1.5 #14	2.3 #7	3.8 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.