Alabama @ Mississippi State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Mississippi State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff82°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Alabama

4-0 · Power #5

▲ winner

Final

Mississippi State

4-0 · Power #29

final

Closing spread

ALA -5.5

✓ ALA W

Total

62.5

▲ Over · 79 pts

Model before kickoff

ALA 34–28 MSST

✓ ALA (67%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenALA -3

CloseALA -5.5

Total58.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenALA -3

2.5 → ALA

CloseALA -5.5

2.5 pts toward Alabama

Total

Open58.5

▲ 4

Close62.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ALA -3 · closed ALA -5.5 · moved 2.5 toward ALAmodel ALA -9

model ALA -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 61%, covered 49% (168 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 58% (44 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenALA -3

CloseALA -5.5

Total58.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ALA as a 5.5-point road favorite at MSST, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ALA won 56–23; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 79 points went over 62.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.3 against an average line of 5.1; 61.5 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	KSU @ KU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	31–27	L	U59.5
Close	ORST @ WSU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-3	35–38	L	O58.5
Close	USC @ ILL 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	32–34	L	O62.5
Close	ALA @ TENN 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	17–24	L	U57.5
Close	ND @ LOU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	20–33	L	U54
Close	TENN @ MSST 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	41–34	L	O63.5
Close	KSU @ CIN 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	26–31	L	O55.5
Close	MIA @ LOU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	52–45	W	O61
Loose	MISS @ LSU 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & spread	-4	26–29	L	U64.5
Loose	BYU @ CIN 2025 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	26–14	W	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALA WWLW	3-1	75%	1-0	3-1
MSST WWWW	4-0	100%	2-0	1-0

Venue/role: ALA away, as favorite; MSST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALA OOOO	4-0	100%	4-0
MSST OUOU	2-2	50%	4-0

Went over in Q3. Of 254 earlier overs in games with totals 58.5–66.5, 27% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALA	7-3 70%	5-4-1 56%	5-5 50%
MSST	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ALA 1–0 MSST ALA leads · 1 game since 2023 · ALA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 30 2023	Alabama 40 @ Mississippi State 17	ALA -16.5	ALA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ALA+20.3 →+23.6▲ 3.3#4

MSST+5.6 →+13.1▲ 7.5#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

ALA

Longer bar = better

MSST

#16

Offense

Even

#12

#41

Defense

Even

#51

+1.3 #20

Turnovers

◀ ALA better

−0.3 #84

67 plays #68

Pace

MSST faster ▶

72 plays #23

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ALA has the ball

Advantage: ALA offense

	ALA off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	48.0 #4	21.0 #52	ALA
Yards / play	7.09 #19	4.96 #47	ALA
PPA / play	+0.36 #14	+0.01 #49	ALA
Success rate	50% #25	39% #54	ALA

When MSST has the ball

Advantage: MSST offense

	MSST off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	43.0 #14	20.3 #46	MSST
Yards / play	7.46 #9	5.21 #68	MSST
PPA / play	+0.37 #12	−0.05 #21	Even
Success rate	51% #12	35% #29	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

ALA scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	8.5 #42	19.5 #2	28.0 #6	8.0 #42	12.0 #8	20.0 #11
MSST allowed	4.0 #58	6.5 #56	10.5 #55	7.8 #124	2.8 #13	10.5 #68

MSST scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	12.3 #10	12.0 #40	24.3 #15	7.5 #50	11.3 #12	18.8 #20
ALA allowed	5.3 #86	8.5 #91	13.8 #96	2.5 #30	4.0 #28	6.5 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.