Missouri @ Mississippi State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 7:45 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Mississippi State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Missouri

3-0 · Power #19

final

Final

Mississippi State

3-0 · Power #29

▲ winner

Closing spread

MSST -3.5

✓ MSST W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

MIZ 27–31 MSST

✓ MSST (59%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMSST -1.5

CloseMSST -3.5

Total56.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMSST -1.5

2 → MSST

CloseMSST -3.5

2 pts toward Mississippi State

Total

Open56.5

▲ 2

Close58.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MSST -1.5 · closed MSST -3.5 · moved 2 toward MSSTmodel MSST -2.5

model MSST -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 50% (345 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 48% (135 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMSST -1.5

CloseMSST -3.5

Total56.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MSST as a 3.5-point home favorite against MIZ, the favorite won 10, covered 10, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MSST won 31–24; the favorite covered, as in 10 of the 10 similar games. 55 points stayed under 58.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Above normal · usually 59%

Favorite covered

10 of 10100%

Above normal · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Wins above normal, covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 13 against an average line of 3.5; 54.6 points a game (usually 52.5). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	USC vs MICH 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-3	31–13	W	U58
Close	LOU vs SMU 2026 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	41–31	W	O57.5
Close	VAN vs MIZ 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	17–10	W	U52.5
Close	MISS vs LSU 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-2.5	24–19	W	U58
Close	ORST vs UCLA 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	36–24	W	O53.5
Close	UNC vs MIA 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	41–31	W	O57
Close	TCU vs SMU 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	35–24	W	U63.5
Close	CIN vs ISU 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	38–30	W	O55.5
Close	KSU vs TCU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	41–3	W	U60
Close	KU vs ILL 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar total & rest	-3.5	34–23	W	U57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIZ LWL	1-2	33%	1-0	—
MSST WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	2-0

Venue/role: MIZ away, as underdog; MSST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIZ OOU	2-1	67%	3-0
MSST OUO	2-1	67%	3-0

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 49% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIZ	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
MSST	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MIZ 2–0 MSST MIZ leads · 2 games since 2023 · MIZ has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 15 2025	Mississippi State 27 @ Missouri 49	MIZ -7.5	MIZ W
Nov 23 2024	Missouri 39 @ Mississippi State 20	MIZ -9.5	MIZ W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIZ+13.4 →+12.6▼ 0.8#20

MSST+5.6 →+12.5▲ 6.9#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

MIZ

Longer bar = better

MSST

#56

Offense

MSST better ▶

#20

Defense

◀ MIZ better

#45

+1.0 #24

Turnovers

◀ MIZ better

0.0 #79

66 plays #74

Pace

MSST faster ▶

69 plays #47

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIZ has the ball

Even matchup

	MIZ off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	39.7 #31	20.0 #58	MIZ
Yards / play	6.37 #58	4.77 #48	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #46	−0.03 #35	Even
Success rate	42% #89	36% #38	MSST

When MSST has the ball

Even matchup

	MSST off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	47.0 #10	17.3 #42	MSST
Yards / play	7.86 #9	4.04 #15	Even
PPA / play	+0.47 #6	−0.13 #13	Even
Success rate	54% #5	30% #9	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

MIZ scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	4.7 #96	21.3 #2	26.0 #13	4.7 #95	9.0 #36	13.7 #70
MSST allowed	5.3 #96	5.3 #42	10.7 #57	5.7 #84	3.7 #27	9.3 #56

MSST scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	11.7 #17	16.0 #10	27.7 #8	9.0 #31	10.3 #22	19.3 #18
MIZ allowed	3.3 #47	7.0 #64	10.3 #53	4.7 #72	2.3 #11	7.0 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.