Troy @ Missouri: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Missouri

Weather at kickoff91°F5 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Troy

2-0 · Power #98

final

Final

Missouri

2-0 · Power #19

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIZ -26.5

✓ TROY W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

TROY 9–36 MIZ

✓ MIZ (97%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMIZ -27.5

CloseMIZ -26.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIZ -27.5

1 → TROY

CloseMIZ -26.5

1 pt toward Troy

Total

Open49.5

no move

Close49.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIZ -27.5 · closed MIZ -26.5 · moved 1 toward TROYmodel MIZ -30

model MIZ -30

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 25.5–27.5 since 2023: won 99%, covered 52% (79 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (350 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMIZ -27.5

CloseMIZ -26.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIZ as a 26.5-point home favorite against TROY, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: MIZ won 27–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 95%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 25.9 against an average line of 25.5; 51.1 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MD vs CLT 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & total	-24.5	38–20	L	O50
Close	WASH vs EMU 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-25	30–9	L	U48.5
Close	MIZ vs UL 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-27.5	52–10	W	O47.5
Close	OSU vs NEB 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar total & spread	-25	21–17	L	U48.5
Close	CLEM vs FAU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-25	48–14	W	O51.5
Close	GT vs TEM 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-24.5	45–24	L	O52.5
Close	LOU vs BGSU 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-26.5	40–17	L	O50.5
Close	UK vs AKR 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-25.25	35–3	W	U48.5
Close	TTU vs UCF 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-24.5	48–9	W	O48.5
Close	ND vs M-OH 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-27.5	28–3	L	U44

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TROY LL	0-2	0%	—	—
MIZ LW	1-1	50%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: TROY away, as underdog; MIZ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TROY UU	0-2	0%	2-0
MIZ OO	2-0	100%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 9 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 54% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TROY	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%
MIZ	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TROY−8.5 →−9.9▼ 1.4#106

MIZ+13.4 →+14.8▲ 1.4#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

TROY

Longer bar = better

MIZ

#87

Offense

MIZ better ▶

#38

#51

Defense

MIZ better ▶

#25

+1.0 #34

Turnovers

Even

+0.5 #45

67 plays #68

Pace

MIZ faster ▶

75 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TROY has the ball

Advantage: MIZ defense

	TROY off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #82	17.5 #58	MIZ
Yards / play	5.74 #85	3.77 #15	MIZ
PPA / play	+0.18 #62	−0.17 #18	MIZ
Success rate	37% #118	24% #7	MIZ

When MIZ has the ball

Even matchup

	MIZ off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	46.0 #25	19.0 #64	MIZ
Yards / play	6.92 #32	4.64 #51	Even
PPA / play	+0.27 #41	−0.07 #38	Even
Success rate	46% #52	37% #52	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 81 FBS teams

TROY scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	10.5	12.0	22.5	3.0	3.5	6.5
MIZ allowed	0.0	7.0	7.0	7.0	3.5	10.5

MIZ scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	7.0	20.0	27.0	7.0	12.0	19.0
TROY allowed	7.0	3.5	10.5	5.0	3.5	8.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.