Troy @ Utah State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Utah State

Weather at kickoff77°F4 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Troy

2-1 · Power #98

final

Final

Utah State

0-3 · Power #95

▲ winner

Closing spread

USU -3

✓ USU W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

TROY 22–25 USU

✓ USU (59%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUSU -2.5

CloseUSU -3

Total52.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSU -2.5

0.5 → USU

CloseUSU -3

0.5 pts toward Utah State

Total

Open52.5

▼ 5

Close47.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USU -2.5 · closed USU -3 · moved 0.5 toward USUmodel USU -4.5

model USU -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 60%, covered 51% (288 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUSU -2.5

CloseUSU -3

Total52.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USU as a 3-point home favorite against TROY, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: USU won 21–10; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.1 against an average line of 2.9; 54.7 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UTSA vs FAU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	38–24	W	O52.5
Close	HAW vs NMSU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-4	20–17	L	U55
Close	ORST vs FRES 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.25	27–36	L	O45
Close	MOST vs LT 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	30–42	L	O45.5
Close	ODU vs GAST 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	25–24	L	U50
Close	CMU vs SDSU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	22–21	L	U47.5
Close	GAST vs CCU 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-0.5	27–48	L	O53
Close	MASS vs UNM 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	31–34	L	O48.5
Close	TROY vs JMU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	14–16	L	U46.25
Close	WVU vs COLO 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest	-6.5	29–22	W	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TROY LLW	1-2	33%	1-0	1-0
USU LWL	1-2	33%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: TROY away, as underdog; USU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TROY UUU	0-3	0%	2-1
USU UUU	0-3	0%	0-3

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 53% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TROY	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	1-9 10%
USU	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TROY−8.5 →−6.1▲ 2.4#93

USU−6.5 →−7.1▼ 0.6#98

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

TROY

Longer bar = better

USU

#108

Offense

◀ TROY better

#133

#47

Defense

◀ TROY better

#83

0.0 #81

Turnovers

◀ TROY better

−2.3 #138

69 plays #51

Pace

◀ TROY faster

67 plays #66

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TROY has the ball

Advantage: USU defense

	TROY off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #102	26.0 #97	Even
Yards / play	5.30 #109	5.10 #66	USU
PPA / play	+0.09 #95	+0.11 #90	Even
Success rate	36% #124	40% #77	USU

When USU has the ball

Advantage: TROY defense

	USU off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	10.3 #137	21.7 #67	TROY
Yards / play	4.33 #133	4.66 #39	TROY
PPA / play	−0.11 #135	0.00 #46	TROY
Success rate	36% #127	35% #35	TROY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

TROY scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	10.3 #28	10.3 #60	20.7 #39	2.0 #132	2.3 #129	4.3 #134
USU allowed	7.3 #114	10.0 #106	17.3 #114	3.3 #42	5.3 #64	8.7 #50

USU scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	2.3 #124	3.3 #132	5.7 #135	2.3 #128	2.3 #129	4.7 #133
TROY allowed	4.7 #76	10.3 #115	15.0 #103	3.3 #42	3.3 #20	6.7 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.