Utah State @ Boise State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Boise State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff84°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Utah State

1-3 · Power #95

final

Final

Boise State

3-1 · Power #37

▲ winner

Closing spread

BOIS -19.5

✓ USU W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

USU 16–36 BOIS

✓ BOIS (91%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBOIS -20.5

CloseBOIS -19.5

Total49.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBOIS -20.5

1 → USU

CloseBOIS -19.5

1 pt toward Utah State

Total

Open49.5

▲ 1

Close50.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BOIS -20.5 · closed BOIS -19.5 · moved 1 toward USUmodel BOIS -17.5

model BOIS -17.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 18.5–20.5 since 2023: won 92%, covered 47% (102 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (370 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBOIS -20.5

CloseBOIS -19.5

Total49.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BOIS as a 19.5-point home favorite against USU, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BOIS won 37–18; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 50.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 93%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 19.1 against an average line of 18.7; 55.7 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UNLV vs NEV 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-17.5	38–14	W	U54.5
Very close	LOU vs CAL 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	26–29	L	O49
Very close	LOU vs UVA 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & situation	-20	31–24	L	O49.5
Very close	MIA vs UVA 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-18.5	29–26	L	O48
Very close	TCU vs HOU 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-16.5	19–30	L	U52
Very close	USA vs USM 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-18.5	55–3	W	O51
Very close	UVA vs STAN 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & situation	-16.5	48–20	W	O48.5
Very close	WSU vs HAW 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	42–10	W	U55.5
Very close	MEM vs TLSA 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-21	45–7	W	U54.5
Very close	UNLV vs SDSU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-21.5	41–20	L	O55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USU LWLW	2-2	50%	1-1	1-1
BOIS WWLW	3-1	75%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: USU away, as underdog; BOIS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USU UUUU	0-4	0%	1-3
BOIS OOOU	3-1	75%	3-1

Went over in Q4. Of 770 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USU	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%
BOIS	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

USU 0–3 BOIS BOIS leads · 3 games since 2023 · BOIS has won the last 3 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 28 2025	Boise State 25 @ Utah State 24	BOIS -1.5	USU W
Oct 5 2024	Utah State 30 @ Boise State 62	BOIS -27.5	BOIS W
Nov 18 2023	Boise State 45 @ Utah State 10	BOIS -4	BOIS W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USU−6.5 →−6.4▲ 0.1#95

BOIS+2.1 →+7.4▲ 5.3#40

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

USU

Longer bar = better

BOIS

#127

Offense

BOIS better ▶

#41

#64

Defense

Even

#72

−1.5 #134

Turnovers

BOIS better ▶

+0.8 #34

65 plays #89

Pace

BOIS faster ▶

71 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USU has the ball

Advantage: BOIS defense

	USU off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	13.0 #136	21.3 #56	BOIS
Yards / play	4.94 #121	7.03 #134	Even
PPA / play	−0.05 #128	+0.04 #61	BOIS
Success rate	38% #122	36% #37	BOIS

When BOIS has the ball

Advantage: BOIS offense

	BOIS off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	33.8 #54	22.0 #63	Even
Yards / play	6.20 #62	5.06 #58	Even
PPA / play	+0.30 #23	+0.03 #57	BOIS
Success rate	50% #24	41% #76	BOIS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

USU scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	3.5 #111	2.5 #136	6.0 #135	5.3 #88	1.8 #136	7.0 #132
BOIS allowed	3.5 #45	8.5 #91	12.0 #70	4.3 #65	5.0 #49	9.3 #54

BOIS scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	6.3 #68	11.3 #45	17.5 #60	8.5 #32	7.8 #59	16.3 #37
USU allowed	7.3 #117	8.3 #87	15.5 #109	2.5 #27	4.0 #30	6.5 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.