Washington State @ Utah State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Fri, Oct 9, 2026, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Utah State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F7 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Washington State

1-4 · Power #100

final

Final

Utah State

1-4 · Power #95

▲ winner

Closing spread

USU -4

✓ WSU W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

WSU 21–25 USU

✓ USU (62%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUSU -3

CloseUSU -4

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSU -3

1 → USU

CloseUSU -4

1 pt toward Utah State

Total

Open44.5

no move

Close44.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USU -3 · closed USU -4 · moved 1 toward USUmodel USU -5.5

model USU -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3–5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 51% (234 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 59% (45 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUSU -3

CloseUSU -4

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USU as a 4-point home favorite against WSU, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: USU won 17–16; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 44.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.9 against an average line of 3.5; 49.9 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	STAN vs SJSU 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	30–29	L	O49.5
Very close	BGSU vs BUFF 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	3–28	L	U44.5
Very close	CSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & total	-3.5	22–19	L	U46.5
Very close	IU vs MSU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & rest	-3.5	21–24	L	U47
Very close	TLSA vs CLT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	26–33	L	O47.5
Very close	M-OH vs OHIO 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & situation	-3.5	30–20	W	O43.5
Very close	ECU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	27–29	L	O44.25
Very close	WYO vs CSU 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & total	-5.5	28–0	W	U46.5
Very close	ILL vs IU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-4.5	48–45	L	O43.5
Very close	SYR vs UNC 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	10–27	L	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSU WLWWL	3-2	60%	1-1	2-1
USU LWLWW	3-2	60%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: WSU away, as underdog; USU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSU UUOOU	2-3	40%	1-4
USU UUUUO	1-4	20%	1-4

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSU	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%
USU	3-7 30%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

WSU 4–3 USU WSU leads · 7 games since 1949 · USU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 22 2025	Washington State 34 @ Utah State 21	USU -1.5	WSU W
Nov 9 2024	Utah State 28 @ Washington State 49	WSU -20.5	WSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSU+0.5 →−7.6▼ 8.1#100

USU−6.5 →−6.5–#92

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

WSU

Longer bar = better

USU

#130

Offense

Even

#127

#87

Defense

Even

#77

−1.0 #126

Turnovers

Even

−1.2 #130

59 plays #125

Pace

USU faster ▶

63 plays #99

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSU has the ball

Advantage: USU defense

	WSU off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #122	25.0 #80	USU
Yards / play	4.84 #127	5.39 #71	USU
PPA / play	−0.11 #135	+0.09 #74	USU
Success rate	34% #136	42% #81	USU

When USU has the ball

Advantage: WSU defense

	USU off	WSU def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #136	25.0 #81	WSU
Yards / play	5.12 #118	5.71 #97	WSU
PPA / play	−0.05 #127	+0.10 #82	WSU
Success rate	36% #128	43% #87	WSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

WSU scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSU scored	4.2 #101	4.6 #121	8.8 #122	4.2 #102	6.0 #94	10.2 #107
USU allowed	8.6 #128	9.4 #104	18.0 #123	2.6 #27	4.4 #38	7.0 #22

USU scoring against the WSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	2.8 #118	4.0 #128	6.8 #133	4.2 #102	3.0 #129	7.2 #132
WSU allowed	4.6 #77	6.2 #53	10.8 #60	4.8 #68	9.4 #121	14.2 #108

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.