San Diego State @ Oregon State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 6:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Oregon State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff58°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

San Diego State

2-3 · Power #108

final

Final

Oregon State

3-2 · Power #48

▲ winner

Closing spread

ORST -14.5

✓ ORST W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 80 pts

Model before kickoff

SDSU 18–32 ORST

✓ ORST (83%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenORST -13.5

CloseORST -14.5

Total57.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORST -13.5

1 → ORST

CloseORST -14.5

1 pt toward Oregon State

Total

Open57.5

▼ 5

Close52.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORST -13.5 · closed ORST -14.5 · moved 1 toward ORSTmodel ORST -9.5

model ORST -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 60% (149 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (342 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenORST -13.5

CloseORST -14.5

Total57.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORST as a 14.5-point home favorite against SDSU, the favorite won 9, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: ORST won 66–14; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 80 points went over 52.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.9 against an average line of 14.6; 49.7 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TOL vs NIU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-13	35–33	L	O48
Close	TOL vs BUFF 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-14.5	31–13	W	U47.25
Close	CAL vs STAN 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-15	24–21	L	U53.5
Close	CAL vs ASU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	24–21	L	U47.5
Close	BC vs CONN 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	21–14	L	U49
Close	SJSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-16.5	24–13	L	U48.5
Close	USA vs MRSH 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-10	28–0	W	U45
Close	USA vs CMU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-16	30–34	L	O47.5
Close	GT vs SYR 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-17.5	41–16	W	O52.5
Close	OKST vs BYU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-16.5	40–34	L	O55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SDSU LLLLW	1-4	20%	0-2	1-2
ORST WWWWW	5-0	100%	2-0	3-0

Venue/role: SDSU away, as underdog; ORST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SDSU OUUOO	3-2	60%	2-3
ORST OOOUO	4-1	80%	3-2

Went over in Q3. Of 780 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SDSU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
ORST	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

SDSU 2–6 ORST ORST leads · 8 games since 1972 · ORST has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 7 2024	Oregon State 21 @ San Diego State 0	ORST -5.5	ORST W
Sep 16 2023	San Diego State 9 @ Oregon State 26	ORST -24.5	SDSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SDSU−1.2 →−7.1▼ 5.9#97

ORST−8.0 →−0.6▲ 7.4#73

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

SDSU

Longer bar = better

ORST

#124

Offense

ORST better ▶

#26

#101

Defense

ORST better ▶

#70

−0.2 #78

Turnovers

ORST better ▶

+0.8 #35

63 plays #101

Pace

ORST faster ▶

67 plays #60

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SDSU has the ball

Advantage: ORST defense

	SDSU off	ORST def	Edge
Points / game	24.6 #97	23.6 #71	ORST
Yards / play	4.81 #131	5.07 #55	ORST
PPA / play	−0.08 #130	+0.09 #76	ORST
Success rate	33% #137	41% #78	ORST

When ORST has the ball

Advantage: ORST offense

	ORST off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #34	28.8 #110	ORST
Yards / play	6.81 #21	5.62 #91	ORST
PPA / play	+0.30 #18	+0.12 #87	ORST
Success rate	49% #29	46% #117	ORST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

SDSU scoring against the ORST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	2.6 #122	4.4 #127	7.0 #130	9.6 #18	8.0 #49	17.6 #22
ORST allowed	3.2 #34	6.8 #60	10.0 #51	6.8 #99	6.8 #83	13.6 #102

ORST scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORST scored	10.4 #17	10.4 #45	20.8 #27	8.2 #30	8.0 #49	16.2 #32
SDSU allowed	6.6 #104	5.2 #37	11.8 #68	6.2 #92	10.8 #131	17.0 #125

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.