New Mexico State @ Florida International: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Wed, Oct 7, 2026, 8:04 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Florida International · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F1 mphgusts 6DryWeather watch ›

New Mexico State

2-3 · Power #119

final

Final

Florida International

2-2 · Power #105

▲ winner

Closing spread

FIU -7

✓ FIU W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 25 pts

Model before kickoff

NMSU 19–27 FIU

✓ FIU (70%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenFIU -3.5

CloseFIU -7

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFIU -3.5

3.5 → FIU

CloseFIU -7

3.5 pts toward Florida International

Total

Open47.5

▼ 1

Close46.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FIU -3.5 · closed FIU -7 · moved 3.5 toward FIUmodel FIU -9.5

model FIU -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 71%, covered 56% (214 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 7Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (213 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenFIU -3.5

CloseFIU -7

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FIU as a 7-point home favorite against NMSU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: FIU won 22–3; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 25 points stayed under 46.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.8 against an average line of 5.8; 56.4 points a game (usually 52.5). Of the 7 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MOST vs UTEP 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-6.5	38–24	W	O48.5
Very close	LT vs WKU 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5	27–28	L	O49.5
Very close	ECU vs TEM 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & total	-8.5	56–34	W	O48.5
Very close	ARMY vs TEM 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & season form	-7	14–13	L	U45.5
Very close	CONN vs BUFF 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & spread	-6	47–3	W	O44.5
Very close	AFA vs HAW 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7	35–44	L	O52.5
Very close	NMSU vs FIU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & total	-6.5	34–17	W	O49.5
Close	WYO vs CSU 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & total	-5.5	28–0	W	U46.5
Close	EMU vs CMU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-3.5	38–34	W	O52.5
Close	CSU vs HAW 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	19–31	L	U53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NMSU WWLLW	3-2	60%	1-1	1-2
FIU WWLL	2-2	50%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: NMSU away, as underdog; FIU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NMSU UOUOU	2-3	40%	2-3
FIU UOUU	1-3	25%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 54% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NMSU	3-7 30%	6-3 67%	3-6 33%
FIU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

NMSU 1–1 FIU Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · FIU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 29 2024	New Mexico State 13 @ Florida International 34	FIU -7.5	FIU W
Oct 4 2023	Florida International 17 @ New Mexico State 34	NMSU -4.5	NMSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NMSU−18.2 →−14.0▲ 4.2#121

FIU−10.0 →−8.6▲ 1.4#101

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

NMSU

Longer bar = better

FIU

#89

Offense

◀ NMSU better

#111

#84

Defense

FIU better ▶

#19

−0.6 #104

Turnovers

◀ NMSU better

−1.0 #121

65 plays #82

Pace

FIU faster ▶

72 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NMSU has the ball

Advantage: FIU defense

	NMSU off	FIU def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #77	14.5 #18	FIU
Yards / play	6.17 #57	4.04 #6	FIU
PPA / play	+0.04 #111	0.00 #39	FIU
Success rate	40% #109	34% #13	FIU

When FIU has the ball

Advantage: NMSU defense

	FIU off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	18.0 #126	26.4 #98	NMSU
Yards / play	5.79 #84	5.55 #84	Even
PPA / play	+0.01 #120	+0.10 #79	NMSU
Success rate	39% #114	41% #75	NMSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

NMSU scoring against the FIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	3.8 #109	9.4 #69	13.2 #92	4.6 #98	10.0 #23	14.6 #59
FIU allowed	4.0 #56	2.3 #9	6.3 #10	3.5 #48	4.8 #41	8.3 #35

FIU scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FIU scored	5.3 #89	5.3 #118	10.5 #110	3.8 #111	3.8 #125	7.5 #130
NMSU allowed	7.2 #117	6.8 #62	14.0 #97	7.6 #113	4.8 #44	12.4 #90

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.