South Florida @ UTSA: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Thu, Oct 8, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at UTSA · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

South Florida

4-1 · Power #76

final

Final

UTSA

4-1 · Power #71

▲ winner

Closing spread

UTSA -5.5

✓ UTSA W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

USF 24–29 UTSA

✓ UTSA (65%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUTSA -6.5

CloseUTSA -5.5

Total55.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUTSA -6.5

1 → USF

CloseUTSA -5.5

1 pt toward South Florida

Total

Open55.5

▼ 6

Close49.5

Down 6 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UTSA -6.5 · closed UTSA -5.5 · moved 1 toward USFmodel UTSA -4.5

model UTSA -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 53% (212 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (374 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUTSA -6.5

CloseUTSA -5.5

Total55.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTSA as a 5.5-point home favorite against USF, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: UTSA won 31–24; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 49.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.8 against an average line of 4.7; 56 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 7 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	JMU vs USA 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-3	31–23	W	O49.5
Close	SC vs MSST 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & spread	-6	37–30	W	O47
Close	WSU vs ARIZ 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	6–44	L	U56.5
Close	ARK vs AUB 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & rest	-2.5	10–48	L	O47
Close	WVU vs CIN 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-5	42–21	W	O52.5
Close	MIZ vs ARK 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & spread	-3	28–21	W	U51
Close	WKU vs NMSU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-5	29–38	L	O54.5
Close	UNLV vs WYO 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	34–14	W	U48.25
Close	ILL vs DUKE 2026 · Week 2 · close · similar total & spread	-6	27–31	L	O51.5
Close	BOIS vs AFA 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & rest	-6.5	27–19	W	O44.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USF LWWLL	2-3	40%	1-1	1-0
UTSA WWWLL	3-2	60%	1-1	1-2

Venue/role: USF away, as underdog; UTSA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USF UOOUU	2-3	40%	4-1
UTSA OUUOU	2-3	40%	4-1

Went over in Q4. Of 737 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USF	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
UTSA	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

USF 1–2 UTSA UTSA leads · 3 games since 2023 · UTSA has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 6 2025	UTSA 23 @ South Florida 55	USF -13.5	USF W
Nov 17 2023	South Florida 21 @ UTSA 49	UTSA -14.5	UTSA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USF+8.1 →−1.0▼ 9.1#74

UTSA+0.4 →−0.1▼ 0.5#70

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

USF

Longer bar = better

UTSA

#67

Offense

Even

#64

#47

Defense

◀ USF better

#73

+0.4 #52

Turnovers

UTSA better ▶

+0.8 #34

59 plays #125

Pace

UTSA faster ▶

65 plays #91

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USF has the ball

Even matchup

	USF off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	26.6 #89	26.2 #97	Even
Yards / play	5.81 #82	5.33 #68	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #72	+0.04 #54	Even
Success rate	49% #26	41% #74	USF

When UTSA has the ball

Even matchup

	UTSA off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	31.4 #67	14.6 #19	USF
Yards / play	5.95 #70	5.10 #59	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #55	0.00 #40	Even
Success rate	44% #62	40% #70	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

USF scoring against the UTSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	5.4 #83	3.4 #134	8.8 #121	5.6 #84	12.2 #5	17.8 #26
UTSA allowed	6.2 #101	8.0 #81	14.2 #99	4.6 #67	7.4 #101	12.0 #86

UTSA scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTSA scored	8.8 #37	9.6 #65	18.4 #49	4.0 #107	9.0 #31	13.0 #75
USF allowed	2.0 #16	7.4 #68	9.4 #41	0.6 #3	4.6 #41	5.2 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.