Navy @ UTSA: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at UTSA · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Navy

2-3 · Power #89

final

Final

UTSA

5-1 · Power #71

▲ winner

Closing spread

UTSA -5.5

✓ NAVY W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 72 pts

Model before kickoff

NAVY 23–30 UTSA

✓ UTSA (68%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUTSA -7

CloseUTSA -5.5

Total55.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUTSA -7

1.5 → NAVY

CloseUTSA -5.5

1.5 pts toward Navy

Total

Open55.5

▼ 3

Close52.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened UTSA -7 · closed UTSA -5.5 · moved 1.5 toward NAVYmodel UTSA -11

model UTSA -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 52% (222 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7The team the line moved toward covered 69% (35 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUTSA -7

CloseUTSA -5.5

Total55.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Prices

DraftKings · prices at kickoff

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	NAVY	UTSA	Over	Under	NAVY	UTSA
DraftKingsDK	+5.5-108	-5.5-112	52.5-115	52.5-105	+180	-218

Last prices before kickoff from ESPN’s odds feed. One book so far. Each row is that book’s own last price, so it can differ from the closing line on this card. Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTSA as a 5.5-point home favorite against NAVY, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: UTSA won 38–34; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 72 points went over 52.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.7 against an average line of 5.7; 63.7 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 8 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USF vs TEM 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-5.5	13–17	L	U50.5
Very close	WKU vs NMSU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-5	29–38	L	O54.5
Very close	WVU vs CIN 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-5	42–21	W	O52.5
Very close	JMU vs USA 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar season form & total	-3	31–23	W	O49.5
Very close	APP vs CCU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	24–27	L	U59
Very close	CCU vs ODU 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & spread	-4	45–37	W	O51.5
Very close	TXST vs TROY 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-7.5	41–48	L	O53.5
Very close	GT vs NCSU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & spread	-7.5	30–29	L	O51
Very close	CONN vs FIU 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & spread	-7	51–10	W	O52
Very close	UL vs TROY 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar team ratings & total	-7.5	51–30	W	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NAVY LLLLW	1-4	20%	0-3	0-1
UTSA WWLLW	4-2	67%	2-1	2-2

Venue/role: NAVY away, as underdog; UTSA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NAVY OOUUO	3-2	60%	2-3
UTSA UUOUO	3-3	50%	5-1

Went over in Q4. Of 800 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NAVY	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
UTSA	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NAVY−9.5 →−5.9▲ 3.6#93

UTSA+0.4 →+1.0▲ 0.6#65

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

NAVY

Longer bar = better

UTSA

#55

Offense

Even

#49

#53

Defense

◀ NAVY better

#68

−1.2 #132

Turnovers

UTSA better ▶

+0.7 #25

66 plays #71

Pace

Even

66 plays #72

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NAVY has the ball

Even matchup

	NAVY off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #82	25.8 #92	Even
Yards / play	6.05 #59	5.24 #59	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #50	+0.05 #53	Even
Success rate	48% #30	41% #66	NAVY

When UTSA has the ball

Even matchup

	UTSA off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #56	23.4 #64	Even
Yards / play	6.05 #58	5.05 #44	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #41	+0.10 #80	UTSA
Success rate	47% #42	36% #23	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

NAVY scoring against the UTSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	5.6 #87	7.4 #96	13.0 #92	6.6 #58	7.4 #60	14.0 #58
UTSA allowed	7.5 #120	7.2 #68	14.7 #102	3.8 #42	7.3 #97	11.2 #72

UTSA scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTSA scored	8.5 #32	8.5 #78	17.0 #51	5.0 #92	9.3 #23	14.3 #52
NAVY allowed	5.6 #88	13.2 #135	18.8 #127	3.2 #33	1.4 #1	4.6 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.