Tulsa @ Navy: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Navy · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F10 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Tulsa

3-2 · Power #87

final

Final

Navy

1-3 · Power #89

▲ winner

Closing spread

NAVY -3

✓ NAVY W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

TLSA 21–23 NAVY

✓ NAVY (57%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNAVY -3

CloseNAVY -3

Total52.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNAVY -3

no move

CloseNAVY -3

No change since the open

Total

Open52.5

▼ 5

Close47.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NAVY -3 · unchangedmodel NAVY -1

model NAVY -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 59%, covered 51% (301 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNAVY -3

CloseNAVY -3

Total52.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NAVY as a 3-point home favorite against TLSA, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: NAVY won 34–26; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 60 points went over 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.2 against an average line of 2.8; 43.8 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MOST vs LT 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	30–42	L	O45.5
Very close	TROY vs JMU 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	14–16	L	U46.25
Very close	JMU vs USA 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	31–23	W	O49.5
Very close	NIU vs TOL 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	6–13	L	U42.5
Very close	AFA vs NAVY 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	14–9	W	U45.5
Very close	FRES vs CSU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	28–22	W	O43.5
Very close	JXST vs GASO 2026 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	31–27	W	O51.5
Very close	ODU vs GAST 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-2	25–24	L	U50
Close	BGSU vs M-OH 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	12–28	L	O38.5
Close	CMU vs SDSU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	22–21	L	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TLSA WLWLW	3-2	60%	0-2	2-1
NAVY LLLL	0-4	0%	0-1	0-3

Venue/role: TLSA away, as underdog; NAVY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TLSA UUUUO	1-4	20%	3-2
NAVY OOUU	2-2	50%	1-3

Went over in Q4. Of 652 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TLSA	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
NAVY	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TLSA 0–1 NAVY NAVY leads · 1 game since 2023 · NAVY has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 13 2025	Navy 42 @ Tulsa 23	NAVY -13.5	NAVY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TLSA−10.2 →−5.0▲ 5.2#86

NAVY−9.5 →−7.0▲ 2.5#96

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

TLSA

Longer bar = better

NAVY

#95

Offense

NAVY better ▶

#70

#51

Defense

Even

#55

+1.2 #14

Turnovers

◀ TLSA better

−0.5 #99

67 plays #62

Pace

◀ TLSA faster

65 plays #90

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TLSA has the ball

Advantage: NAVY defense

	TLSA off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #78	22.8 #59	Even
Yards / play	5.29 #111	4.89 #43	NAVY
PPA / play	+0.13 #81	+0.09 #73	Even
Success rate	39% #111	38% #44	NAVY

When NAVY has the ball

Even matchup

	NAVY off	TLSA def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #93	21.2 #52	TLSA
Yards / play	5.91 #74	5.25 #63	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #70	−0.01 #38	TLSA
Success rate	46% #43	39% #52	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

TLSA scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TLSA scored	2.0 #129	8.2 #83	10.2 #113	9.4 #23	7.0 #72	16.4 #32
NAVY allowed	3.5 #49	15.0 #136	18.5 #127	2.5 #26	1.8 #3	4.3 #3

NAVY scoring against the TLSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	5.3 #91	7.5 #92	12.8 #92	6.8 #65	5.8 #100	12.5 #82
TLSA allowed	4.0 #59	4.6 #28	8.6 #31	7.6 #111	3.6 #23	11.2 #76

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.