Georgia Southern @ Jacksonville State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Jacksonville State

Weather at kickoff81°F10 mphDryWeather watch ›

Georgia Southern

1-1 · Power #82

final

Final

Jacksonville State

1-2 · Power #99

▲ winner

Closing spread

JXST -3.5

✓ JXST W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

GASO 24–26 JXST

✓ JXST (58%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenJXST -2.5

CloseJXST -3.5

Total53.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJXST -2.5

1 → JXST

CloseJXST -3.5

1 pt toward Jacksonville State

Total

Open53.5

▼ 2

Close51.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JXST -2.5 · closed JXST -3.5 · moved 1 toward JXSTmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 50% (336 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 47% (130 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenJXST -2.5

CloseJXST -3.5

Total53.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JXST as a 3.5-point home favorite against GASO, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: JXST won 31–27; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 51.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.6 against an average line of 3.4; 55.6 points a game (usually 52.4). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USM vs JXST 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	42–25	W	O55.5
Very close	ODU vs MRSH 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	35–42	L	O51.5
Very close	JMU vs USA 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	31–23	W	O49.5
Very close	BGSU vs NIU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	7–17	L	U46.5
Very close	ECU vs NAVY 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar season form & total	-2.75	20–34	L	P54
Very close	FIU vs JXST 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	27–21	W	U56
Very close	COLO vs BAY 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	38–31	W	O52.5
Close	LT vs WKU 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & season form	-5	27–28	L	O49.5
Close	GAST vs MRSH 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & spread	-1.5	41–24	W	O53.5
Close	FRES vs SJSU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & rest	-6.5	33–10	W	U55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GASO WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0
JXST LWL	1-2	33%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: GASO away, as underdog; JXST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GASO UU	0-2	0%	1-1
JXST UOO	2-1	67%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 758 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASO	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%
JXST	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

GASO 1–0 JXST GASO leads · 1 game since 2023 · GASO has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 13 2025	Jacksonville State 34 @ Georgia Southern 41	GASO -3.5	GASO W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GASO−8.8 →−7.1▲ 1.7#94

JXST−8.9 →−10.3▼ 1.4#109

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

GASO

Longer bar = better

JXST

#109

Offense

JXST better ▶

#69

#13

Defense

◀ GASO better

#73

+1.0 #33

Turnovers

◀ GASO better

−0.3 #89

72 plays #33

Pace

◀ GASO faster

62 plays #96

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GASO has the ball

Advantage: JXST defense

	GASO off	JXST def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #117	23.0 #81	JXST
Yards / play	5.45 #104	4.84 #56	JXST
PPA / play	+0.08 #102	+0.06 #72	JXST
Success rate	38% #111	41% #83	JXST

When JXST has the ball

Advantage: GASO defense

	JXST off	GASO def	Edge
Points / game	27.7 #87	11.0 #19	GASO
Yards / play	6.11 #65	3.46 #8	GASO
PPA / play	+0.15 #71	−0.17 #14	GASO
Success rate	47% #51	28% #10	GASO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 81 FBS teams

GASO scoring against the JXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GASO scored	10.5	5.0	15.5	3.5	0.0	3.5
JXST allowed	2.3 #13	10.3 #61	12.7 #43	3.3 #23	5.3 #36	8.7 #27

JXST scoring against the GASO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JXST scored	9.3 #21	10.3 #30	19.7 #30	4.7 #49	2.3 #73	7.0 #73
GASO allowed	3.5	4.5	8.0	0.0	3.0	3.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.